Accountability and Oversight

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Forecast for March 1, 2021.

By DanielSchuman March 1, 2021 22 min read

Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. (Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.) TOP LINE Officials tasked with keeping the Capitol safe and open testified before Congress last week — see the video & written testimony from the HSGAC/Senate Rules hearing with all the former security leaders and […]

Forecast for February 15, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 15, 2021 11 min read

THE TOP LINE Impeachment Trial. There’s no legitimate question about Trump’s guilt, the Senate confirmed its jurisdiction 56-44 (which is basically what CRS said), and jury nullification is not a legitimate option. What’s at stake for Trump: disqualification from serving again in high office. What’s at stake for America? Whether we suffocate our democracy. Sen. McConnell declared his support for […]

First Branch Forecast: February 8, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 8, 2021 13 min read

The Senate finally is organized, budget reconciliation is prioritized, and impeachment has materialized. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe. THE TOP LINE Dems took control of Senate committees on Wednesday, two weeks late, when the chamber adopted its organizing resolution after Sen. […]

First Branch Forecast: January 25, 2021

By DanielSchuman January 25, 2021 11 min read

In just three weeks, we’ve seen an insurrection, a second impeachment, and the emergence of “unified” government. We have not seen Republican leaders in Congress take personal responsibility for abetting Trump’s four-year long power grab, commit to holding Trump and his fellow travelers accountable, or earnestly pledging to work with Pres. Biden to repair our […]

Forecast for January 3, 2021

By DanielSchuman January 3, 2021 19 min read

THE TOP LINE Welcome back, Congress. It’s like you never left. Did you miss us? If so, make sure you subscribe (and tell your friends.) Our back issues are here. Tick Tock: On Friday (Jan.1), the Senate overrode the NDAA veto (even as Sen. McConnell killed the boost to COVID relief), and today the House […]

Forecast for December 21, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 21, 2020 23 min read

THE TOP LINE You gotta be kidding. We prep this newsletter during the week and finalize it over the weekend. Alas, there’s no way we could possibly evaluate what is in the appropriations + COVID bill(s) for you — and there’s no way most Members of Congress could know what they’re voting on, either. It […]

Forecast for November 30, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 30, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE Agreement? House and Senate appropriators reached a bipartisan agreement last Tuesday on the 302b numbers — the amount of funding available for each appropriations subcommittee — but LOL, we won’t know these numbers until the bill is released. Is there a path to completing the omnibus on time? Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the […]

Forecast for October 26, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 26, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE Pundits, prognosticators, and pols are starting to talk openly about the interregnum between the election and the start of the 117th Congress… and what comes afterward. This NYT opinion piece, for example, outlines a pro-democracy agenda to “end minority rule” and push back on anti-democratic practices undertaken by the Trump administration and its […]

Forecast for October 12, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 12, 2020 11 min read

Welcome to a shorter-than-normal First Branch Forecast. You might notice that we get more political than usual at parts of this week’s newsletter. Our focus is on a strong and capable legislative branch, and I can’t think of a more honest way to present the material. I hope it still provides useful insights. THE TOP […]

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

By DanielSchuman October 5, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE This weekend has been insane. I hope you’re staying safe. Here’s some of what’s inside: • Coronavirus and the Supreme Court: what a 47-47 Senate means for the Barrett nomination. • How to protect Congress, its staff, the press, and everyone else. • The House Rules Committee heard ideas on how to fix Congress — what […]