Ethics and Influence

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First Branch Forecast for October 9, 2023: Opportunity in Crisis

By DanielSchuman October 9, 2023 19 min read

A PROGRAMMING NOTE This will be the last full issue of the First Branch Forecast for a few weeks. Watch for an email from us from a new email address, most likely in November. More to come. TOP LINE As soon as it was restored in January’s rules package, the motion to vacate the chair […]

First Branch Forecast for September 25, 2023: A Solution to Stop the Shutdown

By DanielSchuman September 25, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE This week will be monumental for Congress not only because of whatever outcome arises from the deadline to fund the government, but also the institutional impact of the ways the factional politics play out in getting there. Although it is the hard-right members of the House urging each other to hold the line […]

First Branch Forecast for September 11, 2023: Hackathon and HH Thursday

By DanielSchuman September 11, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Welcome back to the mess that is the appropriations process. We’re also considering this week how the Senate’s rules contribute to much of the action at the top of the news as Congress returns from recess. This week, the Senate is in session Monday through Thursday. The House returns from its recess on […]

First Branch Forecast for August 28, 2023: One more week

By DanielSchuman August 28, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE With only 12 working days after recess to avert a federal government shutdown, the interfactional dynamics of the House remain unchanged. Last week, the House Freedom Caucus once again saber-rattled about a government shutdown and declared their objection to being jammed in December. The Senate also has conceded that this year’s farm bill will be late, too, […]

First Branch Forecast for August 21, 2023: The ides of August

By DanielSchuman August 21, 2023 6 min read

TOP LINE Yes, friends, we’re headed for a continuing resolution in September. What’s left to be worked out is how long it will be for, at what levels, and the measures that will ride along on the bill. (Disaster relief? A pet project? It will be a fun surprise.) But wait, there’s more: a possible government […]

First Branch Forecast for July 31, 2023: What’s done and what’s left to do

By DanielSchuman July 31, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Recess is here, but it’s not an opportunity to breathe easier. All 12 appropriations bills have been reported by the Senate Appropriations Committee, a first for the Senate in five years. Meanwhile, only 10 have made it out of the House Appropriations Committee gauntlet and there’s talk they won’t take up the other two. […]

First Branch Forecast for July 17, 2023: Summer of Minoritarian Legislating

By DanielSchuman July 17, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE The NDAA is about to burst into flames like an unwatered Christmas tree, having passed the House by a bare 219-210. The appropriations bills have become a Barbenheimer of toplines and messaging amendments. Welcome to the summer of minoritarian legislating. The Senate Appropriations Committee reported out the Legislative branch appropriations bill 30-0 mid-week, […]

First Branch Forecast for 6/26/23 – Teeing Up a Busy July

By DanielSchuman June 26, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE This week Congress starts its two-week Independence Day holiday. We’re hoping to take next week off from writing our little newsletter, but we’ll be back. Among the highlights from this past week: Senate Appropriators adopted 302(b) allocations that are very different from the House’s untenable numbers, but with many Republican defections the National […]

First Branch Forecast for June 20, 2023: Approps Heats Up

By DanielSchuman June 20, 2023 21 min read

TOP LINE After a House Administration Subcommittee hearing focused on the personal rather than the institutional aspects of the Office of Congressional Ethics, we take a deeper look at why that office is vital to an ethical Congress. Congressional unions scored an historic win for committee staff and others. This week both chambers are in […]

First Branch Forecast for June 12, 2023: Who’s the boss?

By DanielSchuman June 12, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE This week. The House and Senate are in and we will see whether Republican House leadership regains control of the floor. (We discuss the power struggle in more detail in the next section.) We expect to see top-line appropriations numbers in the House, a few (big) appropriations markups, and NDAA subcommittee markups in […]

Bipartisan Coalition of 35 Organizations and Individuals Urge House to Protect and Strengthen the Office of Congressional Ethics

By DanielSchuman June 12, 2023 7 min read

In advance of tomorrow’s House Administration Oversight Subcommittee hearing on the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE), 35 organizations and individuals across the political spectrum sent a letter today to leaders of the House Administration Oversight Subcommittee urging them to protect and further strengthen the OCE in its mission. Notably, the coalition asks for the removal […]