Ethics and Influence

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Forecast for February 25, 2019. Your Salad Days.

By DanielSchuman February 25, 2019 6 min read

WORKING IN CONGRESS again is in the news, starting with Sen. Klobuchar receiving a drubbing for her ongoing mistreatment of staff. The New York Times tells a gross story of Sen. Klobuchar and a comb, but less salaciously describes her throwing objects and requesting staff return money earned during parental leave if they leave the office. The […]

Forecast for February 19, 2019. Never Waste an Emergency

By DanielSchuman February 19, 2019 6 min read

THE HOUSE COMMITTEE TASKED WITH MODERNIZING CONGRESS  has 12 newly appointed members, an initial $50,000 budget (through March), and less than one year to issue recommendations. There’s little doubt that Congress must invest in its own brain power and modernize its technology. The select committee isn’t Congress’s only hope, as the oversight committees (House Admin + Senate Rules) and leg branch […]

Forecast for February 4, 2019. Executive Time.

By DanielSchuman February 4, 2019 9 min read

THE TOP LINE H.R. 1, the pro-voting & ethics strengthening bill, is getting negative reviews from anti-anti-corruption politicians (Mitch McConnell), court-identified fabulists (Hans Spakovsky), and K street lobbyists. It’s also the subject of an Oversight hearing on Wednesday. Why won’t House Dems release their caucus rules? Progressives & grassroots orgs are pushing for their publication while Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries dodges press questions. Rep. Jeffries didn’t respond to […]

Forecast for January 28, 2019. A Strange Game. The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play.

By DanielSchuman January 28, 2019 8 min read

TOP LINE The shutdown was shut down, at least for three weeks, after (we suspect) Sen. McConnell made clear to the White House that he would no longer use his position as Senate Majority Leader to block a real vote in which the majority of his party would defect. McConnell signalled this by holding two votes […]

Forecast for January 22, 2019. Champagne Wishes & Caviar Dreams.

By DanielSchuman January 22, 2019 10 min read

TOP LINE In a lengthy and insightful essay, noted Holocaust historian Christopher Browning drew ominous parallels between the destruction of the Weimar Republic by the “old right” and what’s happening today. The most gripping section is his analysis of the old Republic, but this section is striking as well: “If the US has someone whom historians will look […]

Forecast for January 14, 2019. Snow Day.

By DanielSchuman January 14, 2019 13 min read

THE TOP LINE “Why is Congress so dumb?” Rep. Bill Pascrell’s op-ed does a masterful job of summarizing how the self-lobotomization of Congress caused a decline in congressional expertise and empowered special interests. It’s why the new House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress is a big deal and represents an opportunity for Congress to stand up for itself. The last time […]

Forecast for January 7, 2019. All That’s Old Is New Again.

By DanielSchuman January 7, 2019 12 min read

THE TOP LINE The House adopted the most transparent and open rules in my lifetime and by a huge bipartisan majority created a Select Committee on Modernizing Congress. There was a little kerfuffle over Pay-Go and a few surprise votes. More below. The shutdown continues even as the House passed two approps bills that Sen. McConnell refused to bring […]

Forecast for December 24, 2018. Naughty or Nice.

By DanielSchuman December 23, 2018 10 min read

THE TOP LINE Naughty or nice. Congress is still in session, so here’s a little something to read if you’re still hanging around. Shutdown. For the first time in years, the House and Senate got their approps work done on time and five bills enacted into law. But instead of pushing for the remaining seven, they […]

Forecast for December 17, 2018. #MeToo Legislation Sent to the President, Sen. Kyl Resigning, and Nancy Pelosi Secures Support for Speaker.

By DanielSchuman December 17, 2018 11 min read

TOP LINE A government shutdown is looming on Friday and it’s all Trump’s fault, just ask him. With 7 approps bills outstanding, and Congress having done it’s homework, will Congress enact 6 bills as written and turn the 7th into a long term CR, kick the can to the next Congress, or something else? Here’s what happens in […]

Forecast for December 10, 2018. Term Limits for Committee Chairs, Paying Interns, and a Look at the House IG.

By DanielSchuman December 10, 2018 8 min read

Welcome to an abbreviated First Branch Forecast. Today we release a new report on the House Inspector General — yes, the House has an IG. Among our findings: the House IG used to publish its reports online, but nearly all reports were taken down and there’s little public accounting for the IG’s work. What’s in them?

Forecast for December 3, 2018. Shutdown Potentially Postponed, Plus Leadership and Caucus Election Results.

By DanielSchuman December 3, 2018 8 min read

THE TOP LINE George H.W. Bush will lie in state at the Capitol from Monday at 5 p.m. until Wednesday at 7 a.m. with a bicameral arrival ceremony Monday morning. — The executive branch will be closed on Wednesday and Bush’s funeral service will take place at the National Cathedral at 11; no official word on when the House or Senate will be in […]

Forecast for November 19, 2018. Challenges to House Leadership; Changes to House Rules; and How New Members Will Shape Up.

By DanielSchuman November 18, 2018 13 min read

THE TOP LINE House Dems scheduled leadership elections for next week, and everyone else elected their leadership last week. Details on who was elected and what’s going on with Dems elections are below. A draft House rules summary was unveiled last week (WaPo published it), with potentially major changes in the lower chamber. House rules rarely change in significant […]