There’s a lot happening in the world, but we will stay focused on Congress. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast. But first…
Other News In Brief
Former Pres. Trump was the apparent victim of an assassination attempt. This is a developing news story, so please remember that early news reports are not always accurate. Political violence is unacceptable.
The Republican National Convention is this week.
President Biden is resisting entreaties to drop out of the race as Democrats publicly and privately encourage him to step aside out of concern for his health and electability.
APPROPRIATIONS ON THE FLOOR
The House Legislative Branch Appropriations bill failed on the floor 205-213, with ten Republicans voting against it and three voting for it. Here’s the vote breakdown. Republicans voting no included Reps. Biggs, Burchett, Clyde, Crane, Gaetz, Good, Lesko, Norman, and Self. Democrats voting aye included Davis, Golden, and Perez. So far, the two theories on why it failed concern Republican members sending leadership a message, and failure to consider and adopt an amendment to remove the (possibly) unconstitutional language preventing a COLA going forward.
The House had considered four red meat amendments on the floor, only one of which (on COVID-19 masks) appears to have been adopted. Most Democrats didn’t lend their support, despite being generally supportive of the top line number, likely because of the inclusion of policy riders – containing “unnecessary, harmful, and discriminatory policies” – that were reported out of committee.
Senate appropriators are planning on adding $34.5 billion in “emergency” spending for FY 2025, with a $30 billion (3%) increase for defense and a $21 billion (3% increase in non-defense spending. The House numbers are significantly lower, and currently create a 6-7% decrease in nondefense spending. We will see what the final top lines are for all twelve subcommittees.
APPROPRIATIONS IN COMMITTEE
Senate Appropriators favorably reported the Legislative Branch Appropriations bill on Thursday by a vote of 27-0. I haven’t had time to analyze the bill line item by line item – the bill was not considered first by the subcommittee and the bill text and report language only became available after the vote – but you can read the committee’s summary of the bill, bill text, report language, and manager’s package. As a reminder, I’m compiling documents related to Legislative branch appropriations here.
Legislative branch appropriations are unusual. The House’s bill addresses matters internal to the House as well as joint committees and shared agencies; the Senate’s bill addresses matters internal to the Senate as well as joint committees and shared agencies. The House and Senate do not speak to matters that relate solely to the other chamber. Accordingly, report language that concerns one chamber goes into effect – i.e., it’s viewed as non-binding direction on an agency – upon passage of the legislation. To the extent the reports contain messages that relate to shared bodies, they too go into effect unless the other chamber has language that explicitly disagrees. The areas of disagreement are addressed in a joint explanatory statement that accompanies passage of the final bill.
It’s notable that a number of provisions in the Senate’s committee report mirror or are similar to those in the House. Notwithstanding the failure of the House bill, those provisions will still go into effect, although if there’s an omnibus, look towards the explanatory statement accompanying passage of the bill in the House for the committee report language.
Here’s a non-exhaustive list of interesting policy items that I noticed from the Senate Appropriations Committee report. Apologies in advance, this is going to be a long section:
General Provisions
Ongoing interest in strengthening science and technology assistance for members of Congress, including encouraging CRS to hire additional staff and for GAO to strengthen its STAA team and innovation lab.
A continuation of the Legislative branch support agency information working group on access to information held by the Executive branch.
Senate Sergeant at Arms
Concern about insufficient deployment of proximity cards, which control access to offices and facilities.
An emphasis on families, including directing a refreshed report on child care and support for providing space for nursing mothers.
New resources to support a newly created office inside the SAA to support interns.
The requirement to create a new publication on all works of art, historical objects, and exhibits within the Senate.
A report on the deployment of closed captioning services.
Direction to the SAA to incorporate accessibility into their design and acquisition processes, whether relating to software or buildings.
Support for the creation of the congressional staff directory, including encouragement for the SAA to participate in enhancing the exchange of information.
Directs the SAA to brief the committee on efforts to identify artificial intelligence proliferation in constituent correspondence.
Encourages the SAA to work more closely with the House on the co-development of future modernization tools to increase congressional capacity, continuity, and customer service.
Directing the SAA to brief the committee on ongoing efforts to support personal office casework operations. Furthermore, to support the development of methods to track aggregate casework data, the development of casework toolkits, and the establishment of a central hub for caseworker resources.
Personal Offices
Seven million dollars for personal office interns.
Capitol Police
Encouraging the USCP IG to continue online publication of its reports.
Encouraging the USCP to investigate a shot-detection software.
Architect of the Capitol
Report on the status of efforts to address physical accessibility barriers within the Capitol Complex.
Worried about progress on the Library of Congress visitor experience and require biweekly status reports.
Sen. Murphy got his language on the Calder sculpture. 
Report on Dome tours and the creation of an online reservation process.
Library of Congress
Requests the LC provide regular updates to the public on efforts to enhance Congress.gov and to brief the committee on challenges in updating that website.
Establishes semi-annual public forums on improving the LC’s legislative information systems. Requires the LC to prepare reports on the forums to the committees and make those recommendations publicly available that summarize the comments, evaluate implementation mechanisms and costs; it also authorizes the Library to discuss its recommendations with the public.
Directs the Library to provide a detailed report on options to provide appropriations data for public access.
Declares that the LC Inspector General extends fully and completely to all entities within the LC, and directs the LC components to prioritize resolution of LC recommendations.
Congressional Research Service
Directs the LC and CRS to enhance the timeliness and transparency of the CRS, including with quarterly updates and benchmarks for success.
Directs the inclusion of CRS-specific questions in the annual federal employee viewpoint surveys to gauge employee satisfaction.
Directed a report on making casework-related executive branch liaison contact information available for the congressional community.
Government Accountability Office
Directs GAO to update its plan for and to provide recommendations for enhancing GAO’s capability to provide science and technology support to Congress.
Directs GAO to study executive branch responsiveness to Member casework requests.
Directs GAO to improve congressional and public access to its reports, including by publishing them both as PDF and in a text format (including in a structured data format). Ultimately, all GAO reports should be published this way, including the back catalog.
CHEVRON
Kevin Kosar writes that the administrative state will live on – the end of Chevron isn’t the end of regulation – although there will be more lawsuits by those who oppose certain regulations and it will take time for the courts to hear those cases. Congress can also continue to delegate authority to agencies. However, Congress must up its game and “legislators will have to either be more precise in their policy specifications or be more explicit in their delegations of decision-making authority.” See his proposal on creating a Congressional Regulation Office.
Abolishing Chevron could undermine Congress, argues Sarah Binder and Forrest Maltzman. They argue it’s rational for Congress to grant regulators flexibility. Doing so helps future-proof legislation, as circumstances change the agencies can continue to pursue congressional ends, and ambiguity may be necessary at times to enact legislation in the first place. Congress could be less ambiguous if it chose – although it would have to beef up its institutional capacity – but why would the coalitions that oppose legislative action agree to allow Congress to beef up its capacity to write more specific legislation?
Kurt Couchman argues in the Ripon Forum that empowering committees can restore Congress and our democracy. He argues for a suite of legislative measures. Among them is the Comprehensive Congressional Budget Act, which would require Congress to produce a complete budget with all spending and revenue in one annual bill. He also draws attention to the Prevent Government Shutdowns Act, which sets up automatic continuing resolutions and forces Congress to stay in session until it finishes its appropriations bills. He also addresses changing how committees are composed and addressing staffing ratios between the majority and minority.
FACTIONS
Freedom Caucus: Warren Davidson was ousted from the Freedom Caucus in a 16-13 vote (6 members didn’t vote) by the outgoing chair Rep. Bob Good, who lost his seat in Congress and was angry at Davidson for supporting his challenger. There’s reason to believe the FC twisted the rules to oust Davidson using a lower standard. Troy Nehls also quit the caucus, and more departures are expected. Don’t forget that Rep. Good recently pushed out “the executive director of the hardline group’s political apparatus.”
Biden: Those who want Biden to stay on the ticket, and those who don’t, is an interesting divide within the Democratic party. Slate’s Alex Sammon has a theory that Democratic “progressives” are happy with Biden running and the fight over whether he should go “is an internecine fight within the centrist wing of the party.” While it’s not said as explicitly, Punchbowl’s Tuesday look at where the factions stand also suggests splits within the conservative wing of the party (even as the CBC and CHC take sides), which might be why we’re seeing leadership keep their powder dry, although there have been a few sparks.
Josh Hawley says he advocates for christian nationalism and America is a christian nation. The AP took a look at this claim.
The New Democrat Caucus will face a choice between Reps. Brad Schneider and Sharice Davids, who are running to succeed Rep. Annie Kuster as their leader.
Four GOP contenders vie to lead House Foreign Affairs as the current chair is term limited.
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS
The House Administration Committee held a full committee oversight hearing of the Library of Congress. The hearing touched on the future of the Congressional Research Service, significant cost increases related to the Library’s launch of its Visitor Experience and challenges in working with the Architect of the Capitol, a report on an improper relationship between a former Library of Congress Inspector General and another LC employee that potentially compromised the integrity of that office, administration of the Library of Congress’s Trust Fund, cybersecurity, controlling the use of AI to help with Library support to Congress and the public, and LC audiobooks.
The biggest take-away for me was that a panel is currently considering individuals to serve as the next director of CRS and will at some point be making a recommendation to the Librarian of Congress. Perhaps they are close to the end of the process?
There was also a discussion of whether there are vacant spaces in the Madison and Adams buildings because of telework, but it appears that the Library has saved millions of dollars in moving the National Library for the Blind into the Adams building.
Preliminary research did not reveal the report by CIGIE w/r/t the Library of Congress Inspector General who left office in 2020.
Not discussed at the hearing, but included in Dr. Hayden’s testimony, were requests for several changes in legislative authority. They include improving the LC’s recruitment tools and allowing the lending of detail employees between the LC and other federal agencies; improving “transfer authority process” between the AOC and Library for building and grounds projects; and creating a revolving fund to better plan “signature programs with a national audience,” such as the National Book Festival.
ETHICS
Legislation to ban members from trading stock was introduced in the Senate on a bipartisan basis, with Sens. Ossoff, Peters, Hawley, and Merkley co-sponsoring. The bill is expected to receive a markup on July 24th by HSGAC. Note that Sen. Peters, who chairs HSGAC, is a co-sponsor. Sen. Ossoff published a summary of the bill. Sen. Hawley wrote in his press statement “Why should members of Congress be spending their time day trading rather than focusing on the priorities the American people sent us here to achieve and focus on?” Prior efforts to consider similar legislation were reportedly sabotaged by leadership in the House.
WHITE HOUSE OVERSIGHT
Maybe there was a good reason for House Republicans to consider using inherent contempt to get access to video of Biden’s testimony? It certainly seems that the administration’s claims of executive privilege to release the transcript but withhold the video are weaker, although per SCOTUS’s decision on immunity perhaps there are other aspects of the imperial presidency they’d like to strengthen.
Now House Republicans want to interview Biden’s physician, which while a clear political attack, there’s a history of these physicians being untrustworthy, such as with Trump’s physician, current Rep. Ronny Jackson. The Defense Department Inspector General had found Jackson, when he was at the White House, “harassed staff and recklessly drank.” Jackson is the subject of an Office of Congressional Ethics report for illegitimate campaign expenditures and an ongoing Ethics Committee investigation.
Rep. Raskin introduced good legislation last Congress concerning the 25th amendment, specifically having an independent commission on presidential capacity. If I were in Republican leadership, I’d reintroduce the bill and put it on suspension, although it may make for a few awkward moments should some folks who now support it have opposed it last Congress.
While we’re at it, it’s probably a good idea to establish an independent Inspector General for the White House, as has been proposed elsewhere. That proposal, by the way, was floated by Yevgeny Vindman, who is now a candidate for the House of Reps. Perhaps it would be smart for a member to get it drafted and introduced in this Congress. It could make a nice amendment to the NDAA.
So too would a requirement that White House visitor logs be required to be publicly available, fortunately there’s a bill to do just that. This is the list of nearly everyone who visits the White House, which currently is voluntarily disclosed to the public but was taken down during the Trump years. (What are the visitor logs?) It’s also how we know which doctors have visited the White House – smart reporters would confirm that such visits took place when Biden was actually present. (Administration claims of security for not disclosing the specialists seem unpersuasive, but I’m willing to hear out the argument.)
It looks like Republicans didn’t want to spin the wheel on inherent contempt, with the vote failing 204-210. Some reporters describe this as a “win” for Democrats – the same folks who’ve been vocal about thinking inherent contempt is stupid. I disagree. Maybe Democrats should have considered supporting it for crass political reasons – for the precedent it would set in light of who may end up serving as the next president. There’s also the institutional reason: that the Executive branch shouldn’t be able to get away with ignoring congressional subpoenas.
CAPITOL POLICE
The Capitol Police Inspector General released 2 recent-ish IG reports this past week – the first ones released in 2024. They are (1) a December 2023 management letter related to an audit of the USCP for FY2022 and FY 2023, and (2) a March 20, 2024 report on “anti-gag” provisions in nondisclosure agreements.
Let us note first that we are pleased to see these IG reports become publicly available, if slowly. There’s a lot more to work through in the backlog. These are the first two IG reports to be released in 2024 – it’s July, folks – and one of the reports is seven months old. Also, we have to note that the URL is broken for the Anti-Gag report, but we were able to rewrite it to make it work. Someone should tell the USCP to fix the link.
The management letter identified a range of issues at the USCP that relate to financial mismanagement. (1) The Department doesn’t have a way to ensure employees are using time clocks, with 28,000 missing swipes in 2023. (2) The USCP isn’t exercising appropriate controls to make sure that employees with credit cards properly reconcile them against charges, or get approval in advance. (3) The USCP leased four firearms simulators in 2021 for $545,000, but as of November 2023 two still had not been installed because of a lack of space, even though in the prior August the USCP had paid the full amount.
The anti-gag letter is short and raises eyebrows. Sen Grassley asked the IG to review whether the USCP had included anti-gag provisions in their non-disclosure agreements, which are prohibited by recent appropriations bills. An anti-gag provision tells employees that their statutory right to blow the whistle supersedes the terms and conditions of the NDA or policy.
The Capitol Police Inspector General called for department-specific protections for whistleblowers at a July 17th hearing, when when the Capitol Police Chief and Board were questioned about it, they were evasive about moving forward with a policy. AFAICT, there are no department-specific protections. From the transcript:
Mr. D'Esposito. Chief, since you appeared before our Committee weeks ago, months ago, have you implemented specific whistleblower protections?
Mr. Manger. There are regulations that prohibit discrimination and harassment of employees that I think can be used to ensure the protection of whistleblowers.
Mr. D'Esposito. Okay. Will you commit to expand on them by the end of the year? It is one of the most serious issues that we are talking about as a Committee. I think that what is already in place needs to be expanded.
Mr. Manger. Whistleblowers should be protected. True whistleblowers should be protected.
Mr. D'Esposito. Will you commit to work with us by the end of the year to expand?
Mr. Manger. I can certainly work with the Committees on it, absolutely.
Mr. D'Esposito. Ms. Gibson, why hasn't the Capitol Police Board directed the United States Capitol Police to implement specific whistleblower protections?
Ms. Gibson. The Capitol--I absolutely support whistleblower protections. It is essential to ensuring there is an environment in which an employee who might discover waste, fraud, and abuse would feel free and safe and secure in bringing that to someone';s attention. Certainly, the Board can--I think perhaps the best avenue might be to ask the IG to look at the whistleblower protection program and assess its adequacy."
It seems like a lot of dodging and weaving to me concerning protecting whistleblowers.
FWIW, the USCP does not require all employees to sign NDAs, but it is developing an NDA that all new employees and employees receiving a promotion will be required to sign. Several components have their own NDAs as well. The IG noted it had punted to the USCP to review all nondisclosure policies, forms, agreements, and documents in case they contain a gag provision.
ODDS & ENDS
Complaining about leaks from a meeting with 200 people is silly. When the Senate debated nominations and treaties in the 19th century – all of which took place in closed session – the substance of the conversations and relevant legislation was routinely leaked to the press, and they didn’t have any modern technology whatsoever (except the telegraph, which was invented in 1838).
Admiral Grace Hopper gave a lecture at the NSA in August 1982 on Future Possibilities: Data, Hardware, Software, and People. The nonprofit Muckrock organization FOIA’d for a copy, which is stored on two AMPEX 1-inch open reel tapes, and the NSA FOIA’s office response was they did not have the equipment to read the reels to review it for public disclosure. The NSA also said they didn’t have to find the equipment to make it possible, but perhaps someone could lend them the tech and nudge them along?
Rep. Wexton has a new, old voice.
National Convention Guidance was issued by the House Ethics Committee.
The House Office of Inspector General is looking to hire a Director, Information Systems Audits. Pay is in the $190s.
GAO indicated it has completed a new report entitled “Security of Taxpayer Information: IRS Needs to Improve Information System Controls.” This report is notable because it is restricted, and congressional staff who wish to receive a copy should reach out to the agency. The practice of publishing the titles of restricted reports online goes back to 2015, although third parties have published a list of all restricted reports going back to the 1970s. Publishing the titles is important, because how else would members of Congress know that they exist?
Want open government? The National Archives is requesting your suggestions or feedback on their open government plan by July 31, 2024.
Impeachment of Justices Thomas and Alito, or consideration thereof, may be on the House’s agenda courtesy a resolution offered by Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and a score of other members. Read her floor speech on the three-count resolution.
Wilson?? What’s the role of Democratic leaders w/r/t ousting Biden from the top of the ticket. The excellent newsletter Statecraft has the story of how the White House hid the health condition of another president, Woodrow Wilson.
Our friends at TechCongress announced applications for January 2025 fellowships are now open. They are looking to field up to 16 early and mid-career technologists who will serve as tech policy advisors to top Democrats and Republicans in Congress! Want to learn more? Join an informational event and get your questions answered.
CALENDAR
The House Whistleblower Ombuds is hosting a (staff & interns only) lunch and learn on July 29th from 12:00 pm to 1:00 pm in Rayburn 2168 (Gold Room). Go here for more info and to RSVP.
It’s recess week. Mercifully.
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