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First Branch Forecast for October 9, 2023: Opportunity in Crisis

By DanielSchuman October 9, 2023 19 min read

A PROGRAMMING NOTE This will be the last full issue of the First Branch Forecast for a few weeks. Watch for an email from us from a new email address, most likely in November. More to come. TOP LINE As soon as it was restored in January’s rules package, the motion to vacate the chair […]

First Branch Forecast for October 2, 2023: CR-azy week

By DanielSchuman October 2, 2023 25 min read

TOP LINE What a CR-azy week. In many respects it is the natural result of the rules package agreed to at the start of the 118th Congress, the inability of the 117th Congress to enact key reforms, the rise of Trumpism, the return of the strong Speaker model in the 80s-90s, and a Constitutional framework […]

First Branch Forecast for September 25, 2023: A Solution to Stop the Shutdown

By DanielSchuman September 25, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE This week will be monumental for Congress not only because of whatever outcome arises from the deadline to fund the government, but also the institutional impact of the ways the factional politics play out in getting there. Although it is the hard-right members of the House urging each other to hold the line […]

First Branch Forecast for September 18, 2023: The Ladder of Chaos

By DanielSchuman September 18, 2023 21 min read

TOP LINE Happy belated Constitution Day to those who celebrate. This week both chambers are in session Monday through Thursday, with the Senate remaining so Friday. The House has scheduled some sort of continuing resolution vote for Wednesday or later that contains greater than 8% cuts below FY 2023 levels and authorization text on immigration and border-related stuff. […]

First Branch Forecast for September 11, 2023: Hackathon and HH Thursday

By DanielSchuman September 11, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Welcome back to the mess that is the appropriations process. We’re also considering this week how the Senate’s rules contribute to much of the action at the top of the news as Congress returns from recess. This week, the Senate is in session Monday through Thursday. The House returns from its recess on […]

First Branch Forecast for September 5, 2023: Back to work

By DanielSchuman September 5, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE The political and institutional dynamics that have defined the 118th Congress are building to a crescendo as recess comes to an end and the new fiscal year looms. This week we consider: How the far-right faction of the House GOP continues to maneuver successfully because of the procedural landscape it shaped at the […]

30 Years of Legislative Branch Appropriations: Data Spanning from 1994-2023 All In One Place

By DanielSchuman August 31, 2023 1 min read

Each year, Congress allocates funding for the Legislative Branch entities through the Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittee. The Legislative Branch Appropriations bills direct congressional spending, line item by line item — but the instructions are not published as data and can run for dozens of pages, making it very difficult to see how appropriations spending has […]

First Branch Forecast for August 28, 2023: One more week

By DanielSchuman August 28, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE With only 12 working days after recess to avert a federal government shutdown, the interfactional dynamics of the House remain unchanged. Last week, the House Freedom Caucus once again saber-rattled about a government shutdown and declared their objection to being jammed in December. The Senate also has conceded that this year’s farm bill will be late, too, […]

First Branch Forecast for July 31, 2023: What’s done and what’s left to do

By DanielSchuman July 31, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Recess is here, but it’s not an opportunity to breathe easier. All 12 appropriations bills have been reported by the Senate Appropriations Committee, a first for the Senate in five years. Meanwhile, only 10 have made it out of the House Appropriations Committee gauntlet and there’s talk they won’t take up the other two. […]

US Capitol Police Fails to Comply with Pre- and Post-January 6 Congressional Directives to Reform and GAO Recommendations on Security Preparedness and Training

By DanielSchuman July 26, 2023 6 min read

Demand Progress Education Fund Releases New Report Card and Recommendations A new report by Demand Progress Education Fund found that the US Capitol Police (USCP) has either failed to comply with or has slow-walked implementing several reform directives from Congress and recommendations by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), all aimed at improving the agency’s accountability. […]

First Branch Forecast for July 24, 2023: The Unbearable Difficulty of Tracking NDAA Amendments

By DanielSchuman July 24, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE The last business week before recess arrives with little sense of how the two chambers will come eye to eye on appropriations when they reconvene in September. For your reading pleasure, we describe below the good news concerning civil liberties coming out of Congress as two important provisions cleared markups last week. Also, […]

Items Included In FY 2024 Senate Legislative Branch Appropriations Bill Report

By DanielSchuman July 20, 2023 1 min read

On Thursday, July 13, 2023, the Full Senate Appropriations Committee reported out the FY 2024 Legislative Branch Appropriations bill 30-0. The bill text and report weren’t published online until Friday morning but can be found here. To help keep track of all items requested in the Senate Legislative Branch bill report, we built a public […]