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Accountability and Oversight, AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 25, 2023: A Solution to Stop the Shutdown

By DanielSchuman September 25, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE This week will be monumental for Congress not only because of whatever outcome arises from the deadline to fund the government, but also the institutional impact of the ways the factional politics play out in getting there. Although it is the hard-right members of the House urging each other to hold the line […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 18, 2023: The Ladder of Chaos

By DanielSchuman September 18, 2023 21 min read

TOP LINE Happy belated Constitution Day to those who celebrate. This week both chambers are in session Monday through Thursday, with the Senate remaining so Friday. The House has scheduled some sort of continuing resolution vote for Wednesday or later that contains greater than 8% cuts below FY 2023 levels and authorization text on immigration and border-related stuff. […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 11, 2023: Hackathon and HH Thursday

By DanielSchuman September 11, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Welcome back to the mess that is the appropriations process. We’re also considering this week how the Senate’s rules contribute to much of the action at the top of the news as Congress returns from recess. This week, the Senate is in session Monday through Thursday. The House returns from its recess on […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for August 28, 2023: One more week

By DanielSchuman August 28, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE With only 12 working days after recess to avert a federal government shutdown, the interfactional dynamics of the House remain unchanged. Last week, the House Freedom Caucus once again saber-rattled about a government shutdown and declared their objection to being jammed in December. The Senate also has conceded that this year’s farm bill will be late, too, […]

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Congressional Security, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for August 7, 2023: Debt, Trump, and the Capitol Police

By DanielSchuman August 7, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE It’s still recess. This week, we cover: The credit rating downgrade and how to get out of that hole Lessons from the federal Trump insurrection prosecution The bicameral hearing into problems at the Capitol Police And a smattering of other issues. CREDIT DOWNGRADE Our political leaders have managed to talk the markets into downgrading the […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for July 31, 2023: What’s done and what’s left to do

By DanielSchuman July 31, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Recess is here, but it’s not an opportunity to breathe easier. All 12 appropriations bills have been reported by the Senate Appropriations Committee, a first for the Senate in five years. Meanwhile, only 10 have made it out of the House Appropriations Committee gauntlet and there’s talk they won’t take up the other two. […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, Announcements and Statements

US Capitol Police Fails to Comply with Pre- and Post-January 6 Congressional Directives to Reform and GAO Recommendations on Security Preparedness and Training

By DanielSchuman July 26, 2023 6 min read

Demand Progress Education Fund Releases New Report Card and Recommendations A new report by Demand Progress Education Fund found that the US Capitol Police (USCP) has either failed to comply with or has slow-walked implementing several reform directives from Congress and recommendations by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), all aimed at improving the agency’s accountability. […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for July 24, 2023: The Unbearable Difficulty of Tracking NDAA Amendments

By DanielSchuman July 24, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE The last business week before recess arrives with little sense of how the two chambers will come eye to eye on appropriations when they reconvene in September. For your reading pleasure, we describe below the good news concerning civil liberties coming out of Congress as two important provisions cleared markups last week. Also, […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for July 17, 2023: Summer of Minoritarian Legislating

By DanielSchuman July 17, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE The NDAA is about to burst into flames like an unwatered Christmas tree, having passed the House by a bare 219-210. The appropriations bills have become a Barbenheimer of toplines and messaging amendments. Welcome to the summer of minoritarian legislating. The Senate Appropriations Committee reported out the Legislative branch appropriations bill 30-0 mid-week, […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 22, 2023: The plan for Congress’s funding in FY 24

By DanielSchuman May 22, 2023 25 min read

TOP LINE Government accountability requires both structural mechanisms and personal will. By moderately decreasing funding levels for the Legislative branch, House appropriators preserved most of the structural accountability capacity of Congress in their FY 2024 spending package. Individuals, however, continue to dodge holding peers accountable. The US Capitol Police is allowing former acting chief Yogananda […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 15, 2023: Unions, CRS, USCP, and the Debt Debacle

By DanielSchuman May 15, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE In a place driven by interpersonal relationships, failures to treat other people with respect in the Legislative branch stand out. Last week, we learned a lot more about how the people inside CRS feel about how upper management treats them and how that impacts its capabilities. We did so through its union, which […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

By DanielSchuman May 1, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Last week’s House vote garnered a lot of attention but changed nothing. We see little room for Speaker McCarthy to maneuver to stay at the top of his conference while simultaneously negotiating a deal that avoids default on our nation’s debt. Prior Republican speakers have cut loose part of their conference to avert […]

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