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First Branch Forecast for October 9, 2023: Opportunity in Crisis

By DanielSchuman October 9, 2023 19 min read

A PROGRAMMING NOTE This will be the last full issue of the First Branch Forecast for a few weeks. Watch for an email from us from a new email address, most likely in November. More to come. TOP LINE As soon as it was restored in January’s rules package, the motion to vacate the chair […]

First Branch Forecast for October 2, 2023: CR-azy week

By DanielSchuman October 2, 2023 25 min read

TOP LINE What a CR-azy week. In many respects it is the natural result of the rules package agreed to at the start of the 118th Congress, the inability of the 117th Congress to enact key reforms, the rise of Trumpism, the return of the strong Speaker model in the 80s-90s, and a Constitutional framework […]

First Branch Forecast for September 5, 2023: Back to work

By DanielSchuman September 5, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE The political and institutional dynamics that have defined the 118th Congress are building to a crescendo as recess comes to an end and the new fiscal year looms. This week we consider: How the far-right faction of the House GOP continues to maneuver successfully because of the procedural landscape it shaped at the […]

First Branch Forecast for November 14, 2022: Who’s the Boss?

By DanielSchuman November 14, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE We still don’t know many things after Tuesday’s congressional elections, including who will control the House of Representatives. It appears at the moment that Republicans can do no better than a two-seat majority in the House, and winning control is not guaranteed. Democrats will retain control of the Senate, and, pending a run-off, […]

First Branch Forecast for September 19, 2022: Fixing Congress

By DanielSchuman September 19, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE The Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress held its final hearing last Wednesday, aptly on how Congress should continue its work. The Committee has issued 177 recommendations over its three-and-a-half year tenure and likely will surpass the 200 mark before its work concludes at the end of this Congress. By its own […]

First Branch Forecast for September 13, 2022: And We’re Back

By DanielSchuman September 12, 2022 11 min read

TOP LINE A pre-midterm cram session is emerging as the Senate tries to squeeze in votes on same-sex marrige protections, reforms to the Electoral Count Act, insulin pricing, energy permitting reform, FDA user fees…oh, and avoiding a government shutdown Oct. 1. So here we are, less than two months before a very consequential midterm election […]

First Branch Forecast for August 15, 2022: A call to arms

By DanielSchuman August 15, 2022 6 min read

TOP LINE Recess. Barring emergencies, Congress is out until September. On Friday, the House passed the reconciliation package — the Inflation Reduction Act — which now goes to Pres. Biden for signature. The process by which this legislation was considered and enacted underscores the importance of allowing a bare majority to work its will and the […]

First Branch Forecast for July 25, 2022: Après moi, le déluge

By DanielSchuman July 25, 2022 18 min read

TOP LINE This week. In the House, it’s the last week before summer recess. It’s also the Senate’s penultimate week before recess — though we’re seeing calls for both chambers to stay in session. The House will consider a huge semiconductor R&D bill and perhaps public safety legislation concerning firearms. Senate Democratic Appropriators may publish their approps bills. Expect […]

First Branch Forecast for April 11, 2022: Fox on Stocks

By DanielSchuman April 11, 2022 28 min read

TOP LINE This week. The House and Senate are in recess for two weeks and not a moment too soon, with many Members of Congress reporting they’ve tested positive for COVID-19 and, we suspect, many others failing to make a public announcement. Mandatory mask wearing should return to the halls of Congress, positive tests should be recorded and […]

First Branch Forecast for March 21, 2022: Not the Supremes

By DanielSchuman March 21, 2022 18 min read

Welcome‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌First‌ ‌Branch‌ ‌Forecast,‌ ‌your‌ ‌regular‌ ‌look‌ ‌into‌ ‌the‌ ‌Legislative‌ ‌branch‌ ‌and‌ government ‌transparency.‌ ‌Tell ‌your‌ ‌friends‌ ‌to‌ subscribe. TOP LINE This week. The Senate is in; the House is out. This week, much attention will focus on the Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing on SCOTUS nominee Hon. Ketanji Brown Jackson. Last week was packed with Sunshine […]

First Branch Forecast for March 7, 2022

By DanielSchuman March 7, 2022 17 min read

Welcome‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌First‌ ‌Branch‌ ‌Forecast,‌ ‌your‌ ‌regular‌ ‌look‌ ‌into‌ ‌the‌ ‌Legislative‌ ‌branch‌ ‌and‌ government ‌transparency.‌ ‌Tell ‌your‌ ‌friends‌ ‌to‌ subscribe. TOP LINE The House and Senate are both in session today. This week Congress will attempt to pass the spending omnibus — which may include emergency supplementals for Ukraine and Covid-19 — before government funding expires Friday. We’re keeping our eyes […]

First Branch Forecast for February 22, 2022: The twos

By DanielSchuman February 22, 2022 11 min read

Welcome‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌First‌ ‌Branch‌ ‌Forecast,‌ ‌your‌ ‌regular‌ ‌look‌ ‌into‌ ‌the‌ ‌Legislative‌ ‌branch‌ ‌and‌ government ‌transparency.‌ ‌Tell ‌your‌ ‌friends‌ ‌to‌ subscribe. TOP LINE Happy recess. Last week the Senate managed to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government through March 11. Apparently appropriators have reached an agreement on the top line numbers for the appropriations subcommittees, […]