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Forecast for February 1, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 1, 2021 20 min read

The Senate still has not organized, COVID is spreading like wildfire, the impeachment trial clock is ticking, unemployment benefits will expire soon, and white nationalists remain an active threat. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe. THE TOP LINE The no deal […]

What Items Are Due to Congress: February 2021

By DanielSchuman January 29, 2021 12 min read

Congress routinely requests reports on modernizing Congress but there’s no great place to keep track of what they’ve requested. So we are keeping track so you don’t have to. We built a catalog of projects and their due dates that we are maintaining in this public spreadsheet, broken down by item due, entity responsible, and […]

Forecast for December 28, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 29, 2020 17 min read

You shouldn’t be at work and neither should I. But since we’re here, this is the latest on the decline and fall of the American republic. Happy holidays! THE TOP LINEThe COVID/Omnibus bill has been hung up by Pres. Trump and the circumstances could mean a government shutdown lasting two weeks or more… and there’s […]

Forecast for December 21, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 21, 2020 23 min read

THE TOP LINE You gotta be kidding. We prep this newsletter during the week and finalize it over the weekend. Alas, there’s no way we could possibly evaluate what is in the appropriations + COVID bill(s) for you — and there’s no way most Members of Congress could know what they’re voting on, either. It […]

Forecast for December 14, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 14, 2020 22 min read

THE TOP LINE It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. I really don’t want to talk about the totally avoidable train-wreck that is the CR, approps omnibus, and COVID relief efforts, which are as infuriating as they are predictable. The latest contretemps are the natural consequence of institutional design and political incentives, shaped by those […]

2021 Congressional Budget Priorities: House vs. Senate

By DanielSchuman December 1, 2020 1 min read

Senate appropriators released their Fiscal Year 2021 Legislative Branch spending bill proposal back in November — more than a month into the fiscal year. How does their pitch stack up against the House numbers released in July? To find commonalities and differences in funding, we created a side by side comparison, including dollar and percent […]

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 23, 2020 12 min read

TOP LINE Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Congress left town as negotiations continue (we hope) on a plethora of should-pass bills. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is working to undermine the election certification process, thereby increasing the likelihood of a fight in Congress over recognizing President-elect Biden’s victory and further de-legitimizing our political system. Pres.-elect Biden’s unpragmatic genuflection at […]

Forecast for November 16, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 16, 2020 11 min read

TOP LINE The next two months will be a legislative train wreck. On deck are the FY 2021 spending bills, COVID relief, the NDAA, and a ton of pent-up legislation. Notably, Republican Senators finally released draft text for the FY 2021 spending bills with less than a month until a shutdown. In addition, new Members are in […]

Forecast for October 12, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 12, 2020 11 min read

Welcome to a shorter-than-normal First Branch Forecast. You might notice that we get more political than usual at parts of this week’s newsletter. Our focus is on a strong and capable legislative branch, and I can’t think of a more honest way to present the material. I hope it still provides useful insights. THE TOP […]

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

By DanielSchuman October 5, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE This weekend has been insane. I hope you’re staying safe. Here’s some of what’s inside: • Coronavirus and the Supreme Court: what a 47-47 Senate means for the Barrett nomination. • How to protect Congress, its staff, the press, and everyone else. • The House Rules Committee heard ideas on how to fix Congress — what […]

Forecast for September 9, 2020.

By DanielSchuman September 9, 2020 11 min read

Did you miss us? Welcome back to the First Branch Forecast! August was surprisingly busy so we have a pretty robust newsletter for you. Keep your eyes on appropriations, COVID-relief, the NDAA, the upcoming House Rules process, possible reforms in the Senate, and Executive branch efforts to undermine Congress. We put six months of effort […]

Forecast for August 4, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 4, 2020 7 min read

THE TOP LINE Safety first? Rep. Gohmert’s positive COVID-19 test sparked outrage across the Hill, prompting a belated mask mandate in the House, inaction (what else!?!) in the Senate, a possible member-to-member transmission, and countless staffers and aides telling reporters about a backlash from senior staff/Members for wearing masks in their offices or requesting to work remotely. We wrote a letter on March 12 to Congress […]