July 22, 2024 Good morning and welcome back to what likely will be an insane two weeks before the August recess. As we get started, a few programming notes. The next edition of the First Branch Forecast will come from news@firstbranchforecast.com. Please add that email to your address book, whitelist it, or say whatever incantation […]
There’s a lot happening in the world, but we will stay focused on Congress. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast. But first… Other News In Brief Former Pres. Trump was the apparent victim of an assassination attempt. This is a developing news story, so please remember that early news reports are not always accurate. Political […]
Good morning and happy belated 4th of July! Did you miss receiving the First Branch Forecast? Well, we’re back and at our new home at the American Governance Institute. It seems a few things happened while we were on hiatus. As usual, we’re going to stay focused on building a strong Congress, an accountable Executive […]
The team behind the First Branch Forecast is proud to announce a new destination for our work and this newsletter: We’re joining forces with our friends at POPVOX Foundation. After a brief hiatus, the First Branch Forecast will return to your inbox, but from a new address, so please check your promotions and spam folders […]
A PROGRAMMING NOTE This will be the last full issue of the First Branch Forecast for a few weeks. Watch for an email from us from a new email address, most likely in November. More to come. TOP LINE As soon as it was restored in January’s rules package, the motion to vacate the chair […]
TOP LINE What a CR-azy week. In many respects it is the natural result of the rules package agreed to at the start of the 118th Congress, the inability of the 117th Congress to enact key reforms, the rise of Trumpism, the return of the strong Speaker model in the 80s-90s, and a Constitutional framework […]
TOP LINE This week will be monumental for Congress not only because of whatever outcome arises from the deadline to fund the government, but also the institutional impact of the ways the factional politics play out in getting there. Although it is the hard-right members of the House urging each other to hold the line […]
TOP LINE Happy belated Constitution Day to those who celebrate. This week both chambers are in session Monday through Thursday, with the Senate remaining so Friday. The House has scheduled some sort of continuing resolution vote for Wednesday or later that contains greater than 8% cuts below FY 2023 levels and authorization text on immigration and border-related stuff. […]
TOP LINE Welcome back to the mess that is the appropriations process. We’re also considering this week how the Senate’s rules contribute to much of the action at the top of the news as Congress returns from recess. This week, the Senate is in session Monday through Thursday. The House returns from its recess on […]
TOP LINE The political and institutional dynamics that have defined the 118th Congress are building to a crescendo as recess comes to an end and the new fiscal year looms. This week we consider: How the far-right faction of the House GOP continues to maneuver successfully because of the procedural landscape it shaped at the […]
Each year, Congress allocates funding for the Legislative Branch entities through the Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittee. The Legislative Branch Appropriations bills direct congressional spending, line item by line item — but the instructions are not published as data and can run for dozens of pages, making it very difficult to see how appropriations spending has […]
TOP LINE With only 12 working days after recess to avert a federal government shutdown, the interfactional dynamics of the House remain unchanged. Last week, the House Freedom Caucus once again saber-rattled about a government shutdown and declared their objection to being jammed in December. The Senate also has conceded that this year’s farm bill will be late, too, […]