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Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 30, 2023: The debt limit agreeement

By DanielSchuman May 30, 2023 22 min read

TOP LINE Appropriations bills’ markups, scheduled to begin last week, have taken a hiatus awaiting the outcome of the topic du jour. It’s not clear that House Republicans would have been able to pass those bills individually. This week: the deal that Pres. Biden and Speaker McCarthy have reached to raise the debt limit scrambled the […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Diversity and Inclusion, debt limit, factions, Legislative Branch

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 22, 2023: The plan for Congress’s funding in FY 24

By DanielSchuman May 22, 2023 25 min read

TOP LINE Government accountability requires both structural mechanisms and personal will. By moderately decreasing funding levels for the Legislative branch, House appropriators preserved most of the structural accountability capacity of Congress in their FY 2024 spending package. Individuals, however, continue to dodge holding peers accountable. The US Capitol Police is allowing former acting chief Yogananda […]

Tags: Capitol Security, House Ethics Committee, US Capitol Police, White Supremacy

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

By DanielSchuman May 1, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Last week’s House vote garnered a lot of attention but changed nothing. We see little room for Speaker McCarthy to maneuver to stay at the top of his conference while simultaneously negotiating a deal that avoids default on our nation’s debt. Prior Republican speakers have cut loose part of their conference to avert […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Government Accountability Office, Staff Clearances, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS, debt limit, Earmarks

Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 24, 2023: Norms and power

By DanielSchuman April 24, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE Countermajoritarianism defined the week, as it has this Congress. House leadership unveiled an unserious debt limit proposal designed to hold their factions together while they hope Dems make an unforced error. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, stand athwart majority rule in the Judiciary Committee. Senate Democrats can reclaim their power, but only if they stick […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, January 6, ethics, SCOTUS, debt limit

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 17, 2023: Welcome back, Congress

By DanielSchuman April 17, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE Without unified majority control and frequent long-term absences, the Senate hasn’t been much more than a conveyor belt for judicial nominations this Congress. The possibility that Senator Dianne Feinstein may extend her absence and not return at all to the body potentially stalls out even that function as the Judiciary Committee deadlocks. The […]

Tags: Staff Clearances, ethics, SCOTUS, Judicial Security and Privacy Act, debt limit

AI and Emerging Technology, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 10, 2023: Keeping up appearances

By DanielSchuman April 10, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE One of us is back from a trip that included a stop in (no kidding) Indonesia. Unfortunately, the journey, while lovely, was not paid for by a friendly billionaire. We’re reminded during this recess of the unique role Congress holds to preserve our democratic system both by holding the other branches to account […]

Tags: ethics, SCOTUS, AI, MRA

Ethics and Influence, Announcements and Statements, Blog posts

83 Organizations Join Demand Progress Action and the Fred T. Korematsu Institute to Support Passage of Legislative Package Honoring World War II-Era Civil Rights Hero Fred Korematsu Who Fought Against US Concentration Camps

By DanielSchuman March 17, 2023 5 min read

Demand Progress Action and the Fred T. Korematsu Institute led a coalition of 85 civil society organizations to call on Congress to support a new bicameral legislative package introduced today by Senators Hirono and Duckworth and Reps. Takano and Tokuda that recognizes civil rights hero Fred Korematsu for his activism against US incarceration of American […]

Tags: Korematsu Day, Coalition

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for February 27, 2023: Videodome

By DanielSchuman February 27, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Speaker Kevin McCarthy interjected himself into the debate over US Capitol Police openness and transparency in a major way by releasing the entirety of video recorded by its cameras on January 6, 2021 to Tucker Carlson at Fox News. The how and why of this decision are going to distract from the what […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, January 6, Congressional Data Task Force, Earmarks

Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

By DanielSchuman November 22, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Last week, the transition of leadership in the Democratic caucus of the House grabbed the spotlight even as control of the House finally flipped. Off stage, we started tracking whether an institutional transition is underway from the current party/leader management structure. Splinter groups of Republicans in both chambers are dissatisfied with their subordinate […]

Tags: Modernization, Rules, Congressional Unionization, SCOTUS, Caucus Rules

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 19, 2022: Fixing Congress

By DanielSchuman September 19, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE The Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress held its final hearing last Wednesday, aptly on how Congress should continue its work. The Committee has issued 177 recommendations over its three-and-a-half year tenure and likely will surpass the 200 mark before its work concludes at the end of this Congress. By its own […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Freedom of Information Act, Modernization, Staff Clearances, January 6, ethics, Continuity

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for August 22, 2022: The Executive Strikes Back

By DanielSchuman August 22, 2022 12 min read

TOP LINE It’s still recess, with two weeks until the Senate reconvenes and the House has a committee work week. House and Senate Security Manuals are now publicly available thanks to litigation brought by journalist Shawn Musgrave. The House and Senate resisted the effort, brought under a common law right of access, and only ceded ground after it […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Staff Clearances

Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for August 8, 2022: It’s recess?

By DanielSchuman August 8, 2022 8 min read

TOP LINE This week. It’s recess-ish. The Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act reconciliation package over the weekend and the House is expected to briefly reconvene on Friday, August 12 to pass that legislation and perhaps a few other bills. The events of the past week highlight that normal spending processes rarely go by the book; that ethics and […]

Tags: Congressional Unionization, ethics, debt limit, Earmarks, War Powers

First Branch Forecast for May 30, 2023: The debt limit agreeement

First Branch Forecast for May 22, 2023: The plan for Congress’s funding in FY 24

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

First Branch Forecast for April 24, 2023: Norms and power

First Branch Forecast for April 17, 2023: Welcome back, Congress

First Branch Forecast for April 10, 2023: Keeping up appearances

83 Organizations Join Demand Progress Action and the Fred T. Korematsu Institute to Support Passage of Legislative Package Honoring World War II-Era Civil Rights Hero Fred Korematsu Who Fought Against US Concentration Camps

First Branch Forecast for February 27, 2023: Videodome

First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

First Branch Forecast for September 19, 2022: Fixing Congress

First Branch Forecast for August 22, 2022: The Executive Strikes Back

First Branch Forecast for August 8, 2022: It’s recess?

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