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First Branch Forecast for August 7, 2023: Debt, Trump, and the Capitol Police

By DanielSchuman August 7, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE It’s still recess. This week, we cover: The credit rating downgrade and how to get out of that hole Lessons from the federal Trump insurrection prosecution The bicameral hearing into problems at the Capitol Police And a smattering of other issues. CREDIT DOWNGRADE Our political leaders have managed to talk the markets into downgrading the […]

First Branch Forecast for July 31, 2023: What’s done and what’s left to do

By DanielSchuman July 31, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Recess is here, but it’s not an opportunity to breathe easier. All 12 appropriations bills have been reported by the Senate Appropriations Committee, a first for the Senate in five years. Meanwhile, only 10 have made it out of the House Appropriations Committee gauntlet and there’s talk they won’t take up the other two. […]

First Branch Forecast for July 24, 2023: The Unbearable Difficulty of Tracking NDAA Amendments

By DanielSchuman July 24, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE The last business week before recess arrives with little sense of how the two chambers will come eye to eye on appropriations when they reconvene in September. For your reading pleasure, we describe below the good news concerning civil liberties coming out of Congress as two important provisions cleared markups last week. Also, […]

First Branch Forecast for July 17, 2023: Summer of Minoritarian Legislating

By DanielSchuman July 17, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE The NDAA is about to burst into flames like an unwatered Christmas tree, having passed the House by a bare 219-210. The appropriations bills have become a Barbenheimer of toplines and messaging amendments. Welcome to the summer of minoritarian legislating. The Senate Appropriations Committee reported out the Legislative branch appropriations bill 30-0 mid-week, […]

First Branch Forecast for July 10, 2023: The Pre-Recess Sprint

By DanielSchuman July 10, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE Congress returns from the July 4th holiday and dives into a three-week sprint of work before the longer August recess. Appropriations bills remain the focus, with the Senate set to markup the Leg. Branch, CJS, and FSGG bills on Thursday. Look out for the proposed text perhaps the day before. The NDAA is slated to hit the House […]

First Branch Forecast for 6/26/23 – Teeing Up a Busy July

By DanielSchuman June 26, 2023 15 min read

TOP LINE This week Congress starts its two-week Independence Day holiday. We’re hoping to take next week off from writing our little newsletter, but we’ll be back. Among the highlights from this past week: Senate Appropriators adopted 302(b) allocations that are very different from the House’s untenable numbers, but with many Republican defections the National […]

First Branch Forecast for June 20, 2023: Approps Heats Up

By DanielSchuman June 20, 2023 21 min read

TOP LINE After a House Administration Subcommittee hearing focused on the personal rather than the institutional aspects of the Office of Congressional Ethics, we take a deeper look at why that office is vital to an ethical Congress. Congressional unions scored an historic win for committee staff and others. This week both chambers are in […]

First Branch Forecast for June 12, 2023: Who’s the boss?

By DanielSchuman June 12, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE This week. The House and Senate are in and we will see whether Republican House leadership regains control of the floor. (We discuss the power struggle in more detail in the next section.) We expect to see top-line appropriations numbers in the House, a few (big) appropriations markups, and NDAA subcommittee markups in […]

First Branch Forecast for June 5, 2023: A return to normalcy

By DanielSchuman June 5, 2023 9 min read

TOP LINE The debt limit crisis mercifully is over, for now, without the Senate as much as cutting into its three-day weekend. The institutional conditions that enabled the drama, however, remain. For now, it’s back to business on the urgent matters of the day like messaging bills about appliances. We’ll be waiting for the stalled […]

First Branch Forecast for May 30, 2023: The debt limit agreeement

By DanielSchuman May 30, 2023 22 min read

TOP LINE Appropriations bills’ markups, scheduled to begin last week, have taken a hiatus awaiting the outcome of the topic du jour. It’s not clear that House Republicans would have been able to pass those bills individually. This week: the deal that Pres. Biden and Speaker McCarthy have reached to raise the debt limit scrambled the […]

First Branch Forecast for May 22, 2023: The plan for Congress’s funding in FY 24

By DanielSchuman May 22, 2023 25 min read

TOP LINE Government accountability requires both structural mechanisms and personal will. By moderately decreasing funding levels for the Legislative branch, House appropriators preserved most of the structural accountability capacity of Congress in their FY 2024 spending package. Individuals, however, continue to dodge holding peers accountable. The US Capitol Police is allowing former acting chief Yogananda […]

First Branch Forecast for May 15, 2023: Unions, CRS, USCP, and the Debt Debacle

By DanielSchuman May 15, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE In a place driven by interpersonal relationships, failures to treat other people with respect in the Legislative branch stand out. Last week, we learned a lot more about how the people inside CRS feel about how upper management treats them and how that impacts its capabilities. We did so through its union, which […]