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Forecast for December 21, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 21, 2020 23 min read

THE TOP LINE You gotta be kidding. We prep this newsletter during the week and finalize it over the weekend. Alas, there’s no way we could possibly evaluate what is in the appropriations + COVID bill(s) for you — and there’s no way most Members of Congress could know what they’re voting on, either. It […]

Forecast for December 14, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 14, 2020 22 min read

THE TOP LINE It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. I really don’t want to talk about the totally avoidable train-wreck that is the CR, approps omnibus, and COVID relief efforts, which are as infuriating as they are predictable. The latest contretemps are the natural consequence of institutional design and political incentives, shaped by those […]

Forecast for November 30, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 30, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE Agreement? House and Senate appropriators reached a bipartisan agreement last Tuesday on the 302b numbers — the amount of funding available for each appropriations subcommittee — but LOL, we won’t know these numbers until the bill is released. Is there a path to completing the omnibus on time? Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the […]

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 23, 2020 12 min read

TOP LINE Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Congress left town as negotiations continue (we hope) on a plethora of should-pass bills. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is working to undermine the election certification process, thereby increasing the likelihood of a fight in Congress over recognizing President-elect Biden’s victory and further de-legitimizing our political system. Pres.-elect Biden’s unpragmatic genuflection at […]

Forecast For November 2, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 2, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE With so much attention on what will happen when voting wraps up tomorrow, our little newsletter will stay focused on what comes next. (But we will cover implications for Congress if, as Axios suggests is already in the works, Pres. Trump prematurely claims victory and tries to undermine vote counting.) Money problems. Sen. […]

Forecast for October 19, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 19, 2020 7 min read

THE TOP LINE Thursday. The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a meeting to consider the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barret on Thursday. In addition, there’s a growing effort to push Sen. Feinstein out as the Committee’s Democratic leader after she poorly handled the proceedings. I have a lot to say on what’s happened, so […]

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

By DanielSchuman October 5, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE This weekend has been insane. I hope you’re staying safe. Here’s some of what’s inside: • Coronavirus and the Supreme Court: what a 47-47 Senate means for the Barrett nomination. • How to protect Congress, its staff, the press, and everyone else. • The House Rules Committee heard ideas on how to fix Congress — what […]

The Digital File Cabinet: House and Senate File Ethics Disclosures

By DanielSchuman September 29, 2020 2 min read

Members of Congress in the House and Senate, candidates for federal office, senior congressional staff, nominees for executive branch positions, Cabinet members, the president and vice president and Supreme Court justices are required by the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 to file annual reports disclosing their personal finances. Compliance and enforcement of this requirement […]

Forecast for September 9, 2020.

By DanielSchuman September 9, 2020 11 min read

Did you miss us? Welcome back to the First Branch Forecast! August was surprisingly busy so we have a pretty robust newsletter for you. Keep your eyes on appropriations, COVID-relief, the NDAA, the upcoming House Rules process, possible reforms in the Senate, and Executive branch efforts to undermine Congress. We put six months of effort […]

Forecast for August 17, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 17, 2020 6 min read

THE TOP LINE In and Out. The House and Senate were “officially” out until September — officially as of this past Friday — with fewer than a dozen voting days remaining in the House until the government shuts down. Fyi, the Senate has yet to move an approps bill. (Send me what we should call the COVID-CR-Approps-Postal omnibus.) Just when you thought they […]

Forecast for August 4, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 4, 2020 7 min read

THE TOP LINE Safety first? Rep. Gohmert’s positive COVID-19 test sparked outrage across the Hill, prompting a belated mask mandate in the House, inaction (what else!?!) in the Senate, a possible member-to-member transmission, and countless staffers and aides telling reporters about a backlash from senior staff/Members for wearing masks in their offices or requesting to work remotely. We wrote a letter on March 12 to Congress […]

Forecast for July 27, 2020

By DanielSchuman July 27, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE CODA — Covid, Defense, and Approps — are the “must pass” summer blockbuster legislation (we miss movies) that lurched forward in both chambers. Sort of. But how does it end? We’re betting there will be sequels. 11 of the 12 appropriations bills passed or are scheduled for a vote in the House. The Senate […]