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First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

By DanielSchuman November 22, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Last week, the transition of leadership in the Democratic caucus of the House grabbed the spotlight even as control of the House finally flipped. Off stage, we started tracking whether an institutional transition is underway from the current party/leader management structure. Splinter groups of Republicans in both chambers are dissatisfied with their subordinate […]

Recs to Update the House Democratic Caucus Rules for the 118th Congress

By DanielSchuman November 18, 2022 1 min read

We are pleased to release our recommendations to House Democrats on modernizing their caucus rules. The House Democratic Caucus rules provide the framework for how Democrats in the House of Representatives organize their Caucus. They address how they choose their leaders and committee members, identify their priorities, and express their values. With the transition in […]

The 118th House Rules Package Should Retain Fixes From the 116th and 117th Congresses

By DanielSchuman November 17, 2022 8 min read

Written by Taylor J. Swift The conservative House Freedom Caucus issued a 52-page guide to new GOP candidates last month on what they’ll face as freshman members, with recommendations for updating the rules for the chamber and for the party, and the conservative Lincoln Network just published their own recommendations for the rules and procedures […]

First Branch Forecast for November 14, 2022: Who’s the Boss?

By DanielSchuman November 14, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE We still don’t know many things after Tuesday’s congressional elections, including who will control the House of Representatives. It appears at the moment that Republicans can do no better than a two-seat majority in the House, and winning control is not guaranteed. Democrats will retain control of the Senate, and, pending a run-off, […]

First Branch Forecast for November 7, 2022: The Longest Weekend

By DanielSchuman November 7, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE The fallout from the attempted murder of Paul Pelosi reverberates as Americans go to the polls. Those charged with protecting Members of Congress have asked for even more money while the proximate cause of security failures — bad leadership, bad management, bad oversight — remain unaddressed. As some on the new right escalate and make […]

First Branch Forecast for Oct. 31, 2022: Improving Congressional Tech

By DanielSchuman October 31, 2022 11 min read

Top Line 1/ Speaker Pelosi’s husband was violently assaulted in their San Francisco residence. • At the time of writing, we do not know the motives of the assailant. However, it would not be surprising if the ultimate aim was to harm Speaker Pelosi. In this newsletter we have previously discussed the concept of stochastic […]

First Branch Forecast for October 24, 2022: Adults in the Room

By DanielSchuman October 24, 2022 15 min read

TOP LINE Member and committee office staff on Capitol Hill work in an environment with very little incentive or opportunity for their employers to compensate them fairly for their abilities. Committee budgets are uncertain from term to term and Members pay staff out of a fixed allotment that has declined year-over-year until recently. The prestige […]

Statement on Senate Judiciary Subcmte Hearing: “Office of Legal Counsel’s Role in Shaping Executive Privilege Doctrine”

By DanielSchuman October 18, 2022 3 min read

Today at 2 PM ET, the Senate Judiciary subcommittee is holding a hearing entitled “The Office of Legal Counsel’s Role in Shaping Executive Privilege Doctrine” with OLC’s Assistant Attorney General Christopher Schroeder as the sole witness.  Given that secrecy is an all-too-common aspect of the OLC’s work, and that its secrecy has at times undermined […]

First Branch Forecast for October 17, 2022: Looking Ahead

By DanielSchuman October 17, 2022 16 min read

TOP LINE Abby Livingston has had enough. After carving out a successful career as a Capitol Hill journalist – becoming a one-woman DC bureau for the nonprofit Texas Tribune – she quit. The trigger, she shared last week, was realizing a corridor in the Capitol that had felt like the safest place in the world to […]

The Office of Congressional Workplace Rights Updates its Overtime Regulations, but Congress Must Approve the Changes

By DanielSchuman October 14, 2022 2 min read

On September 28, 2022, the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights (OCWR) announced its Board of Directors voted to update regulations implementing the overtime provisions of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). The OCWR Board of Directors also called on Congress to approve the proposed changes in the Congressional Record.  The current FLSA regulations that apply […]

First Branch Forecast for September 26, 2022: Rules Power Play

By DanielSchuman September 26, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE Where will power reside in the next Congress? And what systems of control will delegate and manage that power? These are core questions to understanding the legislative branch at any time, of course. But the answers to those questions may be shifting, perhaps faster than anticipated and in ways that fundamentally change our […]

First Branch Forecast for September 19, 2022: Fixing Congress

By DanielSchuman September 19, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE The Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress held its final hearing last Wednesday, aptly on how Congress should continue its work. The Committee has issued 177 recommendations over its three-and-a-half year tenure and likely will surpass the 200 mark before its work concludes at the end of this Congress. By its own […]