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First Branch Forecast: January 11, 2020

By DanielSchuman January 11, 2021 19 min read

We are overwhelmed and you are too. If you are feeling like you need to talk to someone, call the national suicide helpline at 800-273-8255. You can call even if you are just feeling powerful emotions. It’s perfectly okay to do so. Congressionals can reach out to the Office of Employee Assistance (there’s a recent […]

Tags: Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, January 6, Legislation, Political Violence

Congressional Security, Reports, Blog posts, Reports & Analysis

A Primer on the Capitol Police: What We Know From Two Years of Research

By DanielSchuman January 6, 2021 6 min read

Today armed Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an apparent and temporarily successful effort to disrupt the vote to certify the 2020 presidential election results. Members, staff, and journalists were forced to hide throughout the terrifying ordeal and many took to Twitter asking the fundamental questions: Where are the Capitol Police and how could […]

Tags: US Capitol Police

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for December 28, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 29, 2020 17 min read

You shouldn’t be at work and neither should I. But since we’re here, this is the latest on the decline and fall of the American republic. Happy holidays! THE TOP LINEThe COVID/Omnibus bill has been hung up by Pres. Trump and the circumstances could mean a government shutdown lasting two weeks or more… and there’s […]

Tags: Staff Clearances, Diversity and Inclusion, Proxy Voting

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 30, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 30, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE Agreement? House and Senate appropriators reached a bipartisan agreement last Tuesday on the 302b numbers — the amount of funding available for each appropriations subcommittee — but LOL, we won’t know these numbers until the bill is released. Is there a path to completing the omnibus on time? Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the […]

Tags: Diversity and Inclusion, NDAA

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 23, 2020 12 min read

TOP LINE Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Congress left town as negotiations continue (we hope) on a plethora of should-pass bills. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is working to undermine the election certification process, thereby increasing the likelihood of a fight in Congress over recognizing President-elect Biden’s victory and further de-legitimizing our political system. Pres.-elect Biden’s unpragmatic genuflection at […]

Tags: House Ethics Committee, NDAA, Caucus Rules, Proxy Voting

Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast For November 2, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 2, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE With so much attention on what will happen when voting wraps up tomorrow, our little newsletter will stay focused on what comes next. (But we will cover implications for Congress if, as Axios suggests is already in the works, Pres. Trump prematurely claims victory and tries to undermine vote counting.) Money problems. Sen. […]

Tags: Inspector General, Freedom of Information Act, SCOTUS, factions, NDAA

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Modernization, Rules, Blog posts

Forecast for September 29, 2020.

By DanielSchuman September 29, 2020 6 min read

Good morning, Congress. This week’s First Branch Forecast is shorter than usual because there’s so much going on that we’re overwhelmed. We’ll catch up on a backlog next week. Here’s the top six things you need to know. 1. MEMBER-DAY HEARING ON THE HOUSE RULES (RSVP TUES) You know you’ve been waiting for it for […]

Tags: Legislation, SCOTUS, US Capitol Police

Congressional Security, Reports, Blog posts, Reports & Analysis

Capitol Police Release 2019 Complaints Data With Significant Omissions That Reduce Clarity

By DanielSchuman August 20, 2020 3 min read

The U.S. Capitol Police is notoriously opaque; among the limited information they will provide to the public are summary statistics on employee misconduct, published in their Annual Statistical Summary Report. This report provides a high level summary of the number of complaints made against USCP employees. We requested a copy of the 2019 data in […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, Congressional Data, Leg Support Agencies

Accountability and Oversight, AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for July 13, 2020.

By DanielSchuman July 13, 2020 16 min read

THE TOP LINECongress may finally have begun investing in itself — House appropriators favorably reported a 5% increase in funding for the Legislative Branch. That’s half of the 10% increase sought by good government types (like us), and while Congress is still significantly below its funding level from a decade again, we are starting to dig out of […]

Tags: NDAA, Caucus Rules, US Capitol Police, Office of Congressional Ethics, Diversity and Inclusion, Government Accountability Office

Congressional Security, Blog posts, Reports & Analysis

The Complete Guide to What We Know (And Don’t Know) About the U.S. Capitol Police

By DanielSchuman June 19, 2020 8 min read

The U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) has a critical mission of protecting Congress — Members, employees, and visitors — so constitutionally mandated business can be carried out in a safe and open environment. USCP has a massive $464 million budget for FY 2020 and 2,514 employees, of whom 2,060 are sworn personnel. By comparison, the Washington […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, Leg Support Agencies

Congressional Security, Blog posts, Reports & Analysis

Mapped Out: Capitol Police Arrests

By DanielSchuman June 10, 2020 1 min read

It can be hard to ascertain the specifics of U.S. Capitol Police activity; to make it easier we created a map reflecting almost a year and a half of arrest incidents reported by the department. Check out the map embedded below (or online here) to see where Capitol Police officers were most active between January […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, Congressional Data, Leg Support Agencies

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for June 8, 2020

By DanielSchuman June 8, 2020 16 min read

THE TOP LINE Police reform takes center stage. Widespread outrage over the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police, combined with dozens of videos of police attacking non-violent demonstrators, the use of unidentified internal security forces to police DC streets, and more than 140 police attacks on the press have elevated public pressure on Congress to address systemic police misconduct. […]

Tags: Inspector General, PLUM Act, Foreign Lobbying, US Capitol Police, Surveillance, Legislation, NDAA, Proxy Voting

First Branch Forecast: January 11, 2020

A Primer on the Capitol Police: What We Know From Two Years of Research

Forecast for December 28, 2020

Forecast for November 30, 2020.

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

Forecast For November 2, 2020.

Forecast for September 29, 2020.

Capitol Police Release 2019 Complaints Data With Significant Omissions That Reduce Clarity

Forecast for July 13, 2020.

The Complete Guide to What We Know (And Don’t Know) About the U.S. Capitol Police

Mapped Out: Capitol Police Arrests

Forecast for June 8, 2020

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