Tag: Caucus Rules

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First Branch Forecast for December 19, 2022: Not O.K.?

By DanielSchuman December 19, 2022 12 min read

TOP LINE The end of this Congress feels like the run up before a high school graduation. Senior leaders are saying goodbye while the next crop waits their turn. Everyone’s rushing to turn in their remaining work, leading to sloppy mistakes. The turnover will lead to something new, but we’re not sure what. This work […]

First Branch Forecast for December 5, 2022: The Second Triumvirate

By DanielSchuman December 5, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Congress had some of its most substantive conversations about its rules in years last week. Although the results mostly fiddled around the edges of larger institutional problems, time and opportunity remain to continue the negotiations, at least in the House. The stasis within the Democratic caucus, however, was notable. Meanwhile, things that need […]

Special First Branch Forecast for November 28, 2022: Rules Rules Rules

By DanielSchuman November 28, 2022 5 min read

This week is a big week for party leadership elections and party and chamber rules. We realize we just sent our weekly First Branch Forecast newsletter Monday morning, but this update is both important and timely. As a reminder, we’ve gathered resources on proposals to update the caucus and conference rules. Also, don’t forget our compilation of recs […]

First Branch Forecast for November 28, 2022: Stopping by Congress

By DanielSchuman November 28, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE The next House will be symmetrical to this one: 222 Democrats becoming 222 Republicans. The incoming coalition, however, is a lot less stable than the outgoing one. How Rep. Kevin McCarthy navigates the complex journey to the speakership could break either way for the institutional health of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats, like good Thanksgiving […]

First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

By DanielSchuman November 22, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Last week, the transition of leadership in the Democratic caucus of the House grabbed the spotlight even as control of the House finally flipped. Off stage, we started tracking whether an institutional transition is underway from the current party/leader management structure. Splinter groups of Republicans in both chambers are dissatisfied with their subordinate […]

Recs to Update the House Democratic Caucus Rules for the 118th Congress

By DanielSchuman November 18, 2022 1 min read

We are pleased to release our recommendations to House Democrats on modernizing their caucus rules. The House Democratic Caucus rules provide the framework for how Democrats in the House of Representatives organize their Caucus. They address how they choose their leaders and committee members, identify their priorities, and express their values. With the transition in […]

First Branch Forecast for November 14, 2022: Who’s the Boss?

By DanielSchuman November 14, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE We still don’t know many things after Tuesday’s congressional elections, including who will control the House of Representatives. It appears at the moment that Republicans can do no better than a two-seat majority in the House, and winning control is not guaranteed. Democrats will retain control of the Senate, and, pending a run-off, […]

Forecast for October 18, 2021

By DanielSchuman October 18, 2021 14 min read

Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your regular look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Tell your friends to subscribe. In the words of Ted Lasso, “I appreciate you.” THE TOP LINE Send me in, coach. The House returns on Tuesday with a fairly light floor schedule that suggests bigger legislation is afoot. The Senate reconvenes on Monday. In […]

Forecast for December 14, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 14, 2020 22 min read

THE TOP LINE It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. I really don’t want to talk about the totally avoidable train-wreck that is the CR, approps omnibus, and COVID relief efforts, which are as infuriating as they are predictable. The latest contretemps are the natural consequence of institutional design and political incentives, shaped by those […]

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 23, 2020 12 min read

TOP LINE Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Congress left town as negotiations continue (we hope) on a plethora of should-pass bills. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is working to undermine the election certification process, thereby increasing the likelihood of a fight in Congress over recognizing President-elect Biden’s victory and further de-legitimizing our political system. Pres.-elect Biden’s unpragmatic genuflection at […]

Forecast For November 9, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 9, 2020 12 min read

Congratulations on making it through Election Week. We’re going to walk through what to expect during the interregnum and beyond, but first, if you’re new to our little newsletter or are reading a forwarded email, why not subscribe? THE TOP LINE In an unusual election cycle, President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris have yet to be […]

Forecast for October 26, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 26, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE Pundits, prognosticators, and pols are starting to talk openly about the interregnum between the election and the start of the 117th Congress… and what comes afterward. This NYT opinion piece, for example, outlines a pro-democracy agenda to “end minority rule” and push back on anti-democratic practices undertaken by the Trump administration and its […]