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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 11, 2023: Hackathon and HH Thursday

By DanielSchuman September 11, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Welcome back to the mess that is the appropriations process. We’re also considering this week how the Senate’s rules contribute to much of the action at the top of the news as Congress returns from recess. This week, the Senate is in session Monday through Thursday. The House returns from its recess on […]

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Congressional Security, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for August 7, 2023: Debt, Trump, and the Capitol Police

By DanielSchuman August 7, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE It’s still recess. This week, we cover: The credit rating downgrade and how to get out of that hole Lessons from the federal Trump insurrection prosecution The bicameral hearing into problems at the Capitol Police And a smattering of other issues. CREDIT DOWNGRADE Our political leaders have managed to talk the markets into downgrading the […]

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Appropriations, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for June 5, 2023: A return to normalcy

By DanielSchuman June 5, 2023 9 min read

TOP LINE The debt limit crisis mercifully is over, for now, without the Senate as much as cutting into its three-day weekend. The institutional conditions that enabled the drama, however, remain. For now, it’s back to business on the urgent matters of the day like messaging bills about appliances. We’ll be waiting for the stalled […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 30, 2023: The debt limit agreeement

By DanielSchuman May 30, 2023 22 min read

TOP LINE Appropriations bills’ markups, scheduled to begin last week, have taken a hiatus awaiting the outcome of the topic du jour. It’s not clear that House Republicans would have been able to pass those bills individually. This week: the deal that Pres. Biden and Speaker McCarthy have reached to raise the debt limit scrambled the […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 15, 2023: Unions, CRS, USCP, and the Debt Debacle

By DanielSchuman May 15, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE In a place driven by interpersonal relationships, failures to treat other people with respect in the Legislative branch stand out. Last week, we learned a lot more about how the people inside CRS feel about how upper management treats them and how that impacts its capabilities. We did so through its union, which […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 8, 2023: Food and Housing

By DanielSchuman May 8, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Lawmakers assumed that income tax revenue coming in during April would give them a few more months to posture before the debt default roiled the markets. The time to implement a solution to the debt limit, however, was back in the lame duck session of the last Congress. Unfortunately, Senator Joe Manchin, along […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

By DanielSchuman May 1, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Last week’s House vote garnered a lot of attention but changed nothing. We see little room for Speaker McCarthy to maneuver to stay at the top of his conference while simultaneously negotiating a deal that avoids default on our nation’s debt. Prior Republican speakers have cut loose part of their conference to avert […]

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Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 24, 2023: Norms and power

By DanielSchuman April 24, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE Countermajoritarianism defined the week, as it has this Congress. House leadership unveiled an unserious debt limit proposal designed to hold their factions together while they hope Dems make an unforced error. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, stand athwart majority rule in the Judiciary Committee. Senate Democrats can reclaim their power, but only if they stick […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 17, 2023: Welcome back, Congress

By DanielSchuman April 17, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE Without unified majority control and frequent long-term absences, the Senate hasn’t been much more than a conveyor belt for judicial nominations this Congress. The possibility that Senator Dianne Feinstein may extend her absence and not return at all to the body potentially stalls out even that function as the Judiciary Committee deadlocks. The […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 3, 2023: No Foolin’

By DanielSchuman April 3, 2023 8 min read

TOP LINE Friends, in the last issue we promised that we’re taking a break until April 17th, which we are, we swear. But because there’s been a lot of news this past week, we’re going to point you in the right direction for a few items and leave it at that. As you know, Congress […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for February 21, 2023: Help Wanted: AOC

By DanielSchuman February 23, 2023 10 min read

TOP LINE The lights are off and no one is home as Congress takes an extended break for the Presidents’ Day holiday (which the newsletter also observed). When they return, the Senate committees have a clear path to staff up now that the Rules Committee has allocated budget allotments for each as it does at […]

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AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, First Branch Forecast

First Branch Forecast for February 13, 2023: Eagle eye

By DanielSchuman February 13, 2023 21 min read

TOP LINE It’s hard not to have 21st-century risks facing Congress at top of mind some weeks. We uncovered a serious breach of privacy and independence affecting individual members of Congress involving the FBI that requires immediate action to shield members and staff from unlawful warrantless surveillance. With the help of some sharp colleagues, we […]

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