Tag: factions

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First Branch Forecast for November 14, 2022: Who’s the Boss?

By DanielSchuman November 14, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE We still don’t know many things after Tuesday’s congressional elections, including who will control the House of Representatives. It appears at the moment that Republicans can do no better than a two-seat majority in the House, and winning control is not guaranteed. Democrats will retain control of the Senate, and, pending a run-off, […]

First Branch Forecast for October 24, 2022: Adults in the Room

By DanielSchuman October 24, 2022 15 min read

TOP LINE Member and committee office staff on Capitol Hill work in an environment with very little incentive or opportunity for their employers to compensate them fairly for their abilities. Committee budgets are uncertain from term to term and Members pay staff out of a fixed allotment that has declined year-over-year until recently. The prestige […]

First Branch Forecast for October 17, 2022: Looking Ahead

By DanielSchuman October 17, 2022 16 min read

TOP LINE Abby Livingston has had enough. After carving out a successful career as a Capitol Hill journalist – becoming a one-woman DC bureau for the nonprofit Texas Tribune – she quit. The trigger, she shared last week, was realizing a corridor in the Capitol that had felt like the safest place in the world to […]

First Branch Forecast for September 26, 2022: Rules Power Play

By DanielSchuman September 26, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE Where will power reside in the next Congress? And what systems of control will delegate and manage that power? These are core questions to understanding the legislative branch at any time, of course. But the answers to those questions may be shifting, perhaps faster than anticipated and in ways that fundamentally change our […]

First Branch Forecast for August 1, 2022: Reconciliation

By DanielSchuman August 1, 2022 19 min read

TOP LINE This week. The House floor is closed until Sept.13 (with committee work starting on Sept. 6); the Senate is in for its last scheduled week until Sept. 6. The Senate will stick around until it passes the “Inflation Reduction Act,” AKA mini-reconciliation, timing depending on Democratic Members not testing positive for COVID; and the House is expected to return […]

First Branch Forecast for July 25, 2022: Après moi, le déluge

By DanielSchuman July 25, 2022 18 min read

TOP LINE This week. In the House, it’s the last week before summer recess. It’s also the Senate’s penultimate week before recess — though we’re seeing calls for both chambers to stay in session. The House will consider a huge semiconductor R&D bill and perhaps public safety legislation concerning firearms. Senate Democratic Appropriators may publish their approps bills. Expect […]

Forecast For November 2, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 2, 2020 13 min read

THE TOP LINE With so much attention on what will happen when voting wraps up tomorrow, our little newsletter will stay focused on what comes next. (But we will cover implications for Congress if, as Axios suggests is already in the works, Pres. Trump prematurely claims victory and tries to undermine vote counting.) Money problems. Sen. […]

Forecast for February 4, 2019. Executive Time.

By DanielSchuman February 4, 2019 9 min read

THE TOP LINE H.R. 1, the pro-voting & ethics strengthening bill, is getting negative reviews from anti-anti-corruption politicians (Mitch McConnell), court-identified fabulists (Hans Spakovsky), and K street lobbyists. It’s also the subject of an Oversight hearing on Wednesday. Why won’t House Dems release their caucus rules? Progressives & grassroots orgs are pushing for their publication while Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries dodges press questions. Rep. Jeffries didn’t respond to […]

Forecast for January 14, 2019. Snow Day.

By DanielSchuman January 14, 2019 13 min read

THE TOP LINE “Why is Congress so dumb?” Rep. Bill Pascrell’s op-ed does a masterful job of summarizing how the self-lobotomization of Congress caused a decline in congressional expertise and empowered special interests. It’s why the new House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress is a big deal and represents an opportunity for Congress to stand up for itself. The last time […]

Forecast for December 17, 2018. #MeToo Legislation Sent to the President, Sen. Kyl Resigning, and Nancy Pelosi Secures Support for Speaker.

By DanielSchuman December 17, 2018 11 min read

TOP LINE A government shutdown is looming on Friday and it’s all Trump’s fault, just ask him. With 7 approps bills outstanding, and Congress having done it’s homework, will Congress enact 6 bills as written and turn the 7th into a long term CR, kick the can to the next Congress, or something else? Here’s what happens in […]

Forecast for December 10, 2018. Term Limits for Committee Chairs, Paying Interns, and a Look at the House IG.

By DanielSchuman December 10, 2018 8 min read

Welcome to an abbreviated First Branch Forecast. Today we release a new report on the House Inspector General — yes, the House has an IG. Among our findings: the House IG used to publish its reports online, but nearly all reports were taken down and there’s little public accounting for the IG’s work. What’s in them?

Forecast for December 3, 2018. Shutdown Potentially Postponed, Plus Leadership and Caucus Election Results.

By DanielSchuman December 3, 2018 8 min read

THE TOP LINE George H.W. Bush will lie in state at the Capitol from Monday at 5 p.m. until Wednesday at 7 a.m. with a bicameral arrival ceremony Monday morning. — The executive branch will be closed on Wednesday and Bush’s funeral service will take place at the National Cathedral at 11; no official word on when the House or Senate will be in […]