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Forecast for February 1, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 1, 2021 20 min read

The Senate still has not organized, COVID is spreading like wildfire, the impeachment trial clock is ticking, unemployment benefits will expire soon, and white nationalists remain an active threat. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe. THE TOP LINE The no deal […]

Tags: MRA, US Capitol Police, Political Violence, press freedom, Cybersecurity

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast: January 25, 2021

By DanielSchuman January 25, 2021 11 min read

In just three weeks, we’ve seen an insurrection, a second impeachment, and the emergence of “unified” government. We have not seen Republican leaders in Congress take personal responsibility for abetting Trump’s four-year long power grab, commit to holding Trump and his fellow travelers accountable, or earnestly pledging to work with Pres. Biden to repair our […]

Tags: Political Violence, January 6, US Capitol Police, Diversity and Inclusion

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast: January 18, 2021

By DanielSchuman January 18, 2021 24 min read

THE TOP LINEThe insurrection is not over. The likelihood of violence at federal and state capitals across the country and ongoing organizing by white nationalists means the danger of immediate political violence has not passed even as the national guard and local police forces are on high alert. Meanwhile, the Twitter pundits who tittered that […]

Tags: Proxy Voting, Political Violence, January 6, US Capitol Police

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast: January 11, 2020

By DanielSchuman January 11, 2021 19 min read

We are overwhelmed and you are too. If you are feeling like you need to talk to someone, call the national suicide helpline at 800-273-8255. You can call even if you are just feeling powerful emotions. It’s perfectly okay to do so. Congressionals can reach out to the Office of Employee Assistance (there’s a recent […]

Tags: Legislation, January 6, US Capitol Police, Staff Pay, Political Violence

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Continuity and Resiliency, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for October 12, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 12, 2020 11 min read

Welcome to a shorter-than-normal First Branch Forecast. You might notice that we get more political than usual at parts of this week’s newsletter. Our focus is on a strong and capable legislative branch, and I can’t think of a more honest way to present the material. I hope it still provides useful insights. THE TOP […]

Tags: SCOTUS, Political Violence, Access to Court Proceedings

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Rules, Uncategorized, Blog posts

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

By DanielSchuman October 5, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE This weekend has been insane. I hope you’re staying safe. Here’s some of what’s inside: • Coronavirus and the Supreme Court: what a 47-47 Senate means for the Barrett nomination. • How to protect Congress, its staff, the press, and everyone else. • The House Rules Committee heard ideas on how to fix Congress — what […]

Tags: Proxy Voting, Political Violence, SCOTUS, Congressional Unionization, Freedom of Information Act

Appropriations, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for July 27, 2020

By DanielSchuman July 27, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE CODA — Covid, Defense, and Approps — are the “must pass” summer blockbuster legislation (we miss movies) that lurched forward in both chambers. Sort of. But how does it end? We’re betting there will be sequels. 11 of the 12 appropriations bills passed or are scheduled for a vote in the House. The Senate […]

Tags: Political Violence, NDAA, Office of Legal Counsel, PLUM Act, Government Accountability Office, Office of Congressional Ethics

Appropriations, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for February 25, 2020.

By DanielSchuman February 25, 2020 4 min read

We’ve been busy writing reports and appropriations requests, so welcome to an abbreviated and belated First Branch Forecast. IN BRIEF House Rules are a way for lawmakers to set priorities & implement reforms. We tracked the status of reforms in the House Rules package: see the results. Approps season is in full swing. Roll Call has a draft House […]

Tags: Political Violence, Leg Support Agencies, White Supremacy, US Capitol Police, Freedom of Information Act

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast For February 10, 2020.

By DanielSchuman February 10, 2020 8 min read

ON YOUR RADAR Shedding light on the Justice Department’s OLC Opinions is the topic of today’s Transparency Caucus briefing, set for 2pm in 1310 Longworth. RSVP to Hannah.Mansbach@mail.house.gov. Here’s why we think OLC opinion transparency is important plus a refresher on legislative efforts concerning OLC opinions. Also, read Mike Stern’s latest on OLC. Oversight hearings […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Congressional Research Service, Staff Clearances, Foreign Lobbying, US Capitol Police, Earmarks, Science & Tech, Leg Support Agencies, Budget, Political Violence, War Powers

Accountability and Oversight, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for December 2, 2019.

By DanielSchuman December 2, 2019 6 min read

Welcome to this week’s abbreviated First Branch Forecast. THIS WEEK • Considering the Impeachment Report: H. Intel Cmte hearing Tuesday at 6. • Grounds for Impeachment: H. Judiciary Cmte hearing Wednesday at 10. • Science and Technology Advice for Congress: Science Cmte hearing Thursday at 10. • Rules and Procedures in the House of Representatives: Fix Congress Cmte hearing Thursday at 2. We […]

Tags: Government Accountability Office, Foreign Lobbying, SCOTUS, Whistleblower Protections, Political Violence

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 25, 2019.

By DanielSchuman November 25, 2019 11 min read

TOP LINE With hours to spare lawmakers passed a short-term funding agreement to keep the government running through December 20th, but in doing so unnecessarily violated regular order and rammed through an unrelated authorization provision. Also, word is out the House and Senate reached an agreement on the 302(b)s, but we don’t know what the agreement is. […]

Tags: Inspector General, Government Accountability Office, US Capitol Police, SCOTUS, Surveillance, Science & Tech, Legislation, Political Violence, Transparency in Government Act

Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 12, 2019.

By DanielSchuman August 12, 2019 5 min read

THE TOP LINE The House and Senate return on September 9th, which is 3 full weeks before the start of the next fiscal year. Both chambers must pass and reconcile all 12 spending bills by October 1 to avoid a government shutdown. So far the Senate hasn’t given notice of any approps markups. The House […]

Tags: Political Violence, Budget Justifications, Science & Tech

Tag: Political Violence

Forecast for February 1, 2021

First Branch Forecast: January 25, 2021

First Branch Forecast: January 18, 2021

First Branch Forecast: January 11, 2020

Forecast for October 12, 2020

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

Forecast for July 27, 2020

Forecast for February 25, 2020.

Forecast For February 10, 2020.

Forecast for December 2, 2019.

Forecast for November 25, 2019.

Forecast for August 12, 2019.

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