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Forecast for February 1, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 1, 2021 20 min read

The Senate still has not organized, COVID is spreading like wildfire, the impeachment trial clock is ticking, unemployment benefits will expire soon, and white nationalists remain an active threat. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe. THE TOP LINE The no deal […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, MRA, Political Violence, Cybersecurity, press freedom

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for January 21, 2020.

By DanielSchuman January 21, 2020 12 min read

House Members are in their districts this week but the Senate is in for impeachment trial proceedings, which start today. Senators are the deciders, but they are not jurors. Before we start, it’s worth rereading MLK’s letter from a Birmingham jail. I found this section resonant: “I have tried to make clear that it is wrong to use immoral means […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Freedom of Information Act, Government Accountability Office, Staff Pay, Remote Voting, Earmarks, War Powers, press freedom

Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for June 17, 2019.

By DanielSchuman June 17, 2019 7 min read

CONGRESS IN BRIEF • Congress’s staff retention and diversity issues will be the subject of a Fix Congress committee hearing on Thursday. • The Congressional Research Service will be subject to a rare (and much needed) oversight hearing before the House Administration Committee on Thursday. It’s time to re-read Kevin Kosar’s “Why I Quit the Congressional Research Service.” • Approps on […]

Tags: Diversity and Inclusion, Foreign Lobbying, Science & Tech, press freedom

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for May 13, 2019.

By DanielSchuman May 13, 2019 16 min read

THIS IS YET ANOTHER long winded, discursive First Branch Forecast. What’s inside? • What happened when the Modernization Committee examined transparency as a means to strengthen Congress? • What exactly was included in the leg branch’s budget bill? The contents may surprise you. • Oversight Wars: the phantom privilege • Freedom of the Press • Swamp […]

Tags: Science & Tech, Leg Support Agencies, Cybersecurity, press freedom

Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for February 19, 2019. Never Waste an Emergency

By DanielSchuman February 19, 2019 6 min read

THE HOUSE COMMITTEE TASKED WITH MODERNIZING CONGRESS has 12 newly appointed members, an initial $50,000 budget (through March), and less than one year to issue recommendations. There’s little doubt that Congress must invest in its own brain power and modernize its technology. The select committee isn’t Congress’s only hope, as the oversight committees (House Admin + Senate Rules) and leg branch […]

Tags: Access to Congressionally Mandated Reports Act, Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, Earmarks, White Supremacy, Legislation, Office of Congressional Workplace Rights, Caucus Rules, press freedom

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 19, 2018. Challenges to House Leadership; Changes to House Rules; and How New Members Will Shape Up.

By DanielSchuman November 18, 2018 13 min read

THE TOP LINE House Dems scheduled leadership elections for next week, and everyone else elected their leadership last week. Details on who was elected and what’s going on with Dems elections are below. A draft House rules summary was unveiled last week (WaPo published it), with potentially major changes in the lower chamber. House rules rarely change in significant […]

Tags: Earmarks, factions, Leadership, War Powers, press freedom

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for October 22, 2018. The Tale of Congress’s Incapacity, Plus Judiciary Moves Nominees in Recess.

By DanielSchuman October 22, 2018 8 min read

THE TOP LINE Decades of institutional deterioration has left lawmakers in the dark on technology. The Lincoln Network’s Zach Graves told the tale in ten charts. (We helped). Bookmark it and visit Future Congress for more. The Senate Judiciary Committee advanced six judicial nominations while the Senate was in recess in a further destruction of institutional norms. Nomination hearings during recess […]

Tags: Inspector General, Freedom of Information Act, US Capitol Police, Earmarks, Whistleblower Protections, Cybersecurity, press freedom

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast

Forecast for September 24, 2018. Congress’ Staff Capacity Problem, Plus the Library of Congress Started Publishing CRS Reports.

By DanielSchuman September 24, 2018 8 min read

THE TOP LINE Rules reform is the topic of a Congressional Transparency Caucus event on Thursday at 2 in Rayburn 2456 entitled “Playing by the House Rules.” RSVP here. Rep. Quigley will make opening remarks. Panelists include Daniel Schuman, Demand Progress; Meredith McGehee, Issue One; Matt Glassman, GAI at Georgetown; Molly Reynolds, Brookings Institution. For more, we […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Inspector General, Foreign Lobbying, Caucus Rules, Cybersecurity, press freedom

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for September 10, 2018. Legislative Branch Appropriations and Conference Rules.

By DanielSchuman September 10, 2018 10 min read

TOP LINE The Leg Branch minibus conference report may get a House floor vote this week; there was an actual, real-life conference committee last week. Here’s what’s in the House and Senate bills. — As a bonus (& thanks to Tim Ryan), the House plumped down $8.8m for intern pay in the amended legislation (text is unavailable), a big step forward to opening up the […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Freedom of Information Act, Staff Pay, Caucus Rules, social media, Cybersecurity, press freedom

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 20, 2018. How Effective Exactly Are Lawmakers?

By DanielSchuman August 20, 2018 10 min read

LEGISLATIVE CAPACITY, PROCESS, AND POLITICAL SCIENCE Put down the popcorn, congressional hearings aren’t pure theater. An analysis of over 120 hearings found that witness testimony tended to be fairly balanced and sophisticated. That said, we have concerns that the methodology: using complex language doesn’t mean the arguments are strong, and having competing viewpoints should not suggest full […]

Tags: social media, Cybersecurity, press freedom

Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 13, 2018. While #MeToo Stalls in Congress, SCOTUS Nomination Hearings Move Forward.

By DanielSchuman August 13, 2018 6 min read

THE TOP LINE Rep. Collins was arrested for insider trading every news outlet on earth reported, but that’s not the most interesting part. Multiple news outlets described what happened as Speaker Ryan stripping Collins of his committee membership. He didn’t. Curious? Read my dive into the Speaker’s power to police member behavior and what that means for policy dissenters. […]

Tags: SCOTUS, Science & Tech, press freedom, white

Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 6, 2018. Transparency Bills Are Stuck and the Clock Is Ticking.

By DanielSchuman August 6, 2018 6 min read

TICKING CLOCK ON TRANSPARENCY BILLS The House and Senate have about a dozen good government and transparency bills that have widespread support, have advanced through the chambers, but are now stuck for no apparent (or good) reason. Here’s four of them: — The Access to Congressionally Mandated Reports Act (HR 4631), which requires all mandated agency reports […]

Tags: Access to Congressionally Mandated Reports Act, Office of Congressional Ethics, Legislation, NDAA, Political Violence, press freedom

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Forecast for February 1, 2021

Forecast for January 21, 2020.

Forecast for June 17, 2019.

Forecast for May 13, 2019.

Forecast for February 19, 2019. Never Waste an Emergency

Forecast for November 19, 2018. Challenges to House Leadership; Changes to House Rules; and How New Members Will Shape Up.

Forecast for October 22, 2018. The Tale of Congress’s Incapacity, Plus Judiciary Moves Nominees in Recess.

Forecast for September 24, 2018. Congress’ Staff Capacity Problem, Plus the Library of Congress Started Publishing CRS Reports.

Forecast for August 13, 2018. While #MeToo Stalls in Congress, SCOTUS Nomination Hearings Move Forward.

Forecast for August 6, 2018. Transparency Bills Are Stuck and the Clock Is Ticking.

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