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Forecast for March 22, 2021

By DanielSchuman March 22, 2021 21 min read

Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. (Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.) TOP LINE The security supplemental funding bill could reach $2 billion, according to Billy House, and is intended to strengthen security at the Capitol and enhance member protection. To place this number in […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for February 15, 2021

By DanielSchuman February 15, 2021 11 min read

THE TOP LINE Impeachment Trial. There’s no legitimate question about Trump’s guilt, the Senate confirmed its jurisdiction 56-44 (which is basically what CRS said), and jury nullification is not a legitimate option. What’s at stake for Trump: disqualification from serving again in high office. What’s at stake for America? Whether we suffocate our democracy. Sen. McConnell declared his support for […]

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Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast: January 18, 2021

By DanielSchuman January 18, 2021 24 min read

THE TOP LINEThe insurrection is not over. The likelihood of violence at federal and state capitals across the country and ongoing organizing by white nationalists means the danger of immediate political violence has not passed even as the national guard and local police forces are on high alert. Meanwhile, the Twitter pundits who tittered that […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for December 28, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 29, 2020 17 min read

You shouldn’t be at work and neither should I. But since we’re here, this is the latest on the decline and fall of the American republic. Happy holidays! THE TOP LINEThe COVID/Omnibus bill has been hung up by Pres. Trump and the circumstances could mean a government shutdown lasting two weeks or more… and there’s […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for December 21, 2020

By DanielSchuman December 21, 2020 23 min read

THE TOP LINE You gotta be kidding. We prep this newsletter during the week and finalize it over the weekend. Alas, there’s no way we could possibly evaluate what is in the appropriations + COVID bill(s) for you — and there’s no way most Members of Congress could know what they’re voting on, either. It […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 23, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 23, 2020 12 min read

TOP LINE Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Congress left town as negotiations continue (we hope) on a plethora of should-pass bills. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is working to undermine the election certification process, thereby increasing the likelihood of a fight in Congress over recognizing President-elect Biden’s victory and further de-legitimizing our political system. Pres.-elect Biden’s unpragmatic genuflection at […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Modernization, Rules, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for November 16, 2020.

By DanielSchuman November 16, 2020 11 min read

TOP LINE The next two months will be a legislative train wreck. On deck are the FY 2021 spending bills, COVID relief, the NDAA, and a ton of pent-up legislation. Notably, Republican Senators finally released draft text for the FY 2021 spending bills with less than a month until a shutdown. In addition, new Members are in […]

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Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for October 19, 2020

By DanielSchuman October 19, 2020 7 min read

THE TOP LINE Thursday. The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a meeting to consider the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barret on Thursday. In addition, there’s a growing effort to push Sen. Feinstein out as the Committee’s Democratic leader after she poorly handled the proceedings. I have a lot to say on what’s happened, so […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Rules, Uncategorized, Blog posts

Forecast for October 5, 2020.

By DanielSchuman October 5, 2020 12 min read

THE TOP LINE This weekend has been insane. I hope you’re staying safe. Here’s some of what’s inside: • Coronavirus and the Supreme Court: what a 47-47 Senate means for the Barrett nomination. • How to protect Congress, its staff, the press, and everyone else. • The House Rules Committee heard ideas on how to fix Congress — what […]

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Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 17, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 17, 2020 6 min read

THE TOP LINE In and Out. The House and Senate were “officially” out until September — officially as of this past Friday — with fewer than a dozen voting days remaining in the House until the government shuts down. Fyi, the Senate has yet to move an approps bill. (Send me what we should call the COVID-CR-Approps-Postal omnibus.) Just when you thought they […]

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Accountability and Oversight, Continuity and Resiliency, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 10, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 10, 2020 8 min read

THE TOP LINE The House and Senate are basically out — with a skeleton crew staying in DC until a Coronavirus deal is struck or they give up. Members have been told they have 24-hours notice to return for a vote. Talks have apparently failed; this weekend the president took executive actions of dubious utility and questionable legality in an […]

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Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Continuity and Resiliency, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

Forecast for August 4, 2020.

By DanielSchuman August 4, 2020 7 min read

THE TOP LINE Safety first? Rep. Gohmert’s positive COVID-19 test sparked outrage across the Hill, prompting a belated mask mandate in the House, inaction (what else!?!) in the Senate, a possible member-to-member transmission, and countless staffers and aides telling reporters about a backlash from senior staff/Members for wearing masks in their offices or requesting to work remotely. We wrote a letter on March 12 to Congress […]

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