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First Branch Forecast for August 28, 2023: One more week

By DanielSchuman August 28, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE With only 12 working days after recess to avert a federal government shutdown, the interfactional dynamics of the House remain unchanged. Last week, the House Freedom Caucus once again saber-rattled about a government shutdown and declared their objection to being jammed in December. The Senate also has conceded that this year’s farm bill will be late, too, […]

Tags: Library of Congress, Office of Congressional Ethics, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS, Congressional Hackathon

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for July 17, 2023: Summer of Minoritarian Legislating

By DanielSchuman July 17, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE The NDAA is about to burst into flames like an unwatered Christmas tree, having passed the House by a bare 219-210. The appropriations bills have become a Barbenheimer of toplines and messaging amendments. Welcome to the summer of minoritarian legislating. The Senate Appropriations Committee reported out the Legislative branch appropriations bill 30-0 mid-week, […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, SCOTUS, Judicial Security and Privacy Act, NDAA, Congressional Security and Privacy Act

Appropriations, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for June 5, 2023: A return to normalcy

By DanielSchuman June 5, 2023 9 min read

TOP LINE The debt limit crisis mercifully is over, for now, without the Senate as much as cutting into its three-day weekend. The institutional conditions that enabled the drama, however, remain. For now, it’s back to business on the urgent matters of the day like messaging bills about appliances. We’ll be waiting for the stalled […]

Tags: SCOTUS, debt limit

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

By DanielSchuman May 1, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Last week’s House vote garnered a lot of attention but changed nothing. We see little room for Speaker McCarthy to maneuver to stay at the top of his conference while simultaneously negotiating a deal that avoids default on our nation’s debt. Prior Republican speakers have cut loose part of their conference to avert […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Government Accountability Office, Staff Clearances, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS, debt limit, Earmarks

Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 24, 2023: Norms and power

By DanielSchuman April 24, 2023 11 min read

TOP LINE Countermajoritarianism defined the week, as it has this Congress. House leadership unveiled an unserious debt limit proposal designed to hold their factions together while they hope Dems make an unforced error. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, stand athwart majority rule in the Judiciary Committee. Senate Democrats can reclaim their power, but only if they stick […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, January 6, ethics, SCOTUS, debt limit

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 17, 2023: Welcome back, Congress

By DanielSchuman April 17, 2023 19 min read

TOP LINE Without unified majority control and frequent long-term absences, the Senate hasn’t been much more than a conveyor belt for judicial nominations this Congress. The possibility that Senator Dianne Feinstein may extend her absence and not return at all to the body potentially stalls out even that function as the Judiciary Committee deadlocks. The […]

Tags: Staff Clearances, ethics, SCOTUS, Judicial Security and Privacy Act, debt limit

AI and Emerging Technology, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 10, 2023: Keeping up appearances

By DanielSchuman April 10, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE One of us is back from a trip that included a stop in (no kidding) Indonesia. Unfortunately, the journey, while lovely, was not paid for by a friendly billionaire. We’re reminded during this recess of the unique role Congress holds to preserve our democratic system both by holding the other branches to account […]

Tags: ethics, SCOTUS, AI, MRA

Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

By DanielSchuman November 22, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Last week, the transition of leadership in the Democratic caucus of the House grabbed the spotlight even as control of the House finally flipped. Off stage, we started tracking whether an institutional transition is underway from the current party/leader management structure. Splinter groups of Republicans in both chambers are dissatisfied with their subordinate […]

Tags: Modernization, Rules, Congressional Unionization, SCOTUS, Caucus Rules

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for June 13, 2022: Everything at once

By DanielSchuman June 13, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE As hearings into the Trump insurrection start, we join the #CapitolStrong community in recognizing that this can bring up strong feelings among the Members, staff, employees, journalists, and others who work on Capitol Hill or are close to those who do. Some mental health resources are available on the coalition website. This week. The House is […]

Tags: Appropriations, Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS

Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 16, 2022: A better Congress

By DanielSchuman May 16, 2022 22 min read

TOP LINE This week. The Senate is in today as is the House. Next week is a House committee-only work week, followed by the Memorial Day break in both chambers. On suspension on the House floor is a bill to strengthen the VA IG. The committee schedule is filled with appropriations hearings, but we also note that the House Judiciary Cmte […]

Tags: Congressional Unionization, SCOTUS, Judicial Security and Privacy Act, Budget Justifications

Accountability and Oversight, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 2, 2022: A real coup

By DanielSchuman May 2, 2022 7 min read

TOP LINE This week. The Senate is in; the House is out until May 10. We are sending an abbreviated First Branch Forecast because we are tired. Don’t worry, we’ll have the highlights from the gazillion hearings this past week, including 3 Leg Branch, 2 CJS, and House Judiciary and ModCom hearings. TREATING STAFF LIKE PEOPLE No one noticed, but […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Appropriations, PLUM Act, Staff Pay, SCOTUS, Statements of Disbursements

Appropriations, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast: April 25, 2022

By DanielSchuman April 25, 2022 21 min read

TOP LINE This week. The Senate is in today; the House is in tomorrow. This week, we’ll be glued to another round of Leg branch approps hearings on the Library of Congress, GPO, & the AOC; a CJS approps double-header with the Justice Department, a ModCom hearing on modernizing the legislative process; and a House Judiciary hearing on […]

Tags: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Appropriations, Congressional Unionization, US Capitol Police, SCOTUS

Tag: SCOTUS

First Branch Forecast for August 28, 2023: One more week

First Branch Forecast for July 17, 2023: Summer of Minoritarian Legislating

First Branch Forecast for June 5, 2023: A return to normalcy

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

First Branch Forecast for April 24, 2023: Norms and power

First Branch Forecast for April 17, 2023: Welcome back, Congress

First Branch Forecast for April 10, 2023: Keeping up appearances

First Branch Forecast for November 21, 2022: Twilight of the Idols

First Branch Forecast for June 13, 2022: Everything at once

First Branch Forecast for May 16, 2022: A better Congress

First Branch Forecast for May 2, 2022: A real coup

First Branch Forecast: April 25, 2022

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