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First Branch Forecast for May 15, 2023: Unions, CRS, USCP, and the Debt Debacle

By DanielSchuman May 15, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE In a place driven by interpersonal relationships, failures to treat other people with respect in the Legislative branch stand out. Last week, we learned a lot more about how the people inside CRS feel about how upper management treats them and how that impacts its capabilities. We did so through its union, which […]

Tags: debt limit, Congressional Research Service, Congressional Unionization, US Capitol Police

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

By DanielSchuman May 1, 2023 17 min read

TOP LINE Last week’s House vote garnered a lot of attention but changed nothing. We see little room for Speaker McCarthy to maneuver to stay at the top of his conference while simultaneously negotiating a deal that avoids default on our nation’s debt. Prior Republican speakers have cut loose part of their conference to avert […]

Tags: debt limit, Congressional Research Service, Government Accountability Office, Staff Clearances, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS, Earmarks

Appropriations, Congressional Security, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for April 3, 2023: No Foolin’

By DanielSchuman April 3, 2023 8 min read

TOP LINE Friends, in the last issue we promised that we’re taking a break until April 17th, which we are, we swear. But because there’s been a lot of news this past week, we’re going to point you in the right direction for a few items and leave it at that. As you know, Congress […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, debt limit, Legislative Branch

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for March 6, 2023: Members Request Staff Funding

By DanielSchuman March 6, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Money decisions figured prominently in a shortened work week for the House. Committee leaders followed suit with Senate counterparts in requesting more funds for their staff in the coming fiscal year, while appropriators established tighter controls over the earmarks process. CHA, meanwhile, has grabbed the spotlight early in this Congress. This week … The […]

Tags: Appropriations, Staff Pay, Modernization, Diversity and Inclusion, US Capitol Police, January 6, MRA, Earmarks, Legislative Branch

AI and Emerging Technology, Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for February 27, 2023: Videodome

By DanielSchuman February 27, 2023 13 min read

TOP LINE Speaker Kevin McCarthy interjected himself into the debate over US Capitol Police openness and transparency in a major way by releasing the entirety of video recorded by its cameras on January 6, 2021 to Tucker Carlson at Fox News. The how and why of this decision are going to distract from the what […]

Tags: US Capitol Police, January 6, Congressional Data Task Force, Earmarks

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for December 12, 2022: Twelve Squared

By DanielSchuman December 12, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE No, this is not the most wonderful time of the year for people who care about Congress. The twin must-pass bills that remain for this lame duck session – the NDAA and additional government funding – encapsulate the most dispiriting aspects of current congressional procedure and leadership. Tracking what gets thrown into the […]

Tags: PLUM Act, Access to Congressionally Mandated Reports Act, Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, Judicial Security and Privacy Act, factions, NDAA

AI and Emerging Technology, Congressional Security, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for November 7, 2022: The Longest Weekend

By DanielSchuman November 7, 2022 17 min read

TOP LINE The fallout from the attempted murder of Paul Pelosi reverberates as Americans go to the polls. Those charged with protecting Members of Congress have asked for even more money while the proximate cause of security failures — bad leadership, bad management, bad oversight — remain unaddressed. As some on the new right escalate and make […]

Tags: Staff Pay, Modernization, US Capitol Police, NDAA, Trump Taxes, social media

Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for Oct. 31, 2022: Improving Congressional Tech

By DanielSchuman October 31, 2022 11 min read

Top Line 1/ Speaker Pelosi’s husband was violently assaulted in their San Francisco residence. • At the time of writing, we do not know the motives of the assailant. However, it would not be surprising if the ultimate aim was to harm Speaker Pelosi. In this newsletter we have previously discussed the concept of stochastic […]

Tags: Congressional Data, PRESS Act, Congressional Data Task Force, US Capitol Police, Congressional Unionization

Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Rules, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for September 6, 2022: Democracy

By DanielSchuman September 6, 2022 9 min read

TOP LINE This week: Congress is back. The committee calendar is looking quiet. The House has a committee work week; the Senate floor will start by addressing some nominations. On tap for the month: a continuing resolution publishing Appropriations until December is likely. On Friday, the White House’s OMB published what it would like to […]

Tags: Staff Pay, Congressional Unionization, House Intern Resource Office, US Capitol Police, Trump Taxes, Congressional Transparency Caucus, Whistleblower Protections

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for July 18, 2022: Accumulation of Facts

By DanielSchuman July 18, 2022 14 min read

TOP LINE Happy House Union Day to all those who celebrate! Today is the day House staff can join a labor union under protection of law. It’s a historic occasion a quarter-century in the making. And yet, some Senate staff cannot collectively bargain until the Senate approves regulations adopted by the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights and some joint […]

Tags: Office of Legal Counsel, Staff Pay, Congressional Unionization, Diversity and Inclusion, US Capitol Police, NDAA

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Congressional Workplace Fairness and Inclusion, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for June 21, 2022

By DanielSchuman June 21, 2022 21 min read

TOP LINE This week. The House is in today and so is the Senate. After this week, both chambers will take a break from floor legislative activities until July 11th — according to the House floor calendar and Senate floor calendar — although the House will hold a committee work week next week. Afterward, the House has scheduled only 3 weeks of […]

Tags: Appropriations, Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, January 6, Congressional Data Task Force, Legislative Branch, Political Violence, House Digital Service

Appropriations, Congressional Security, Ethics and Influence, Modernization, Appropriation Tracking, First Branch Forecast, Blog posts

First Branch Forecast for June 13, 2022: Everything at once

By DanielSchuman June 13, 2022 13 min read

TOP LINE As hearings into the Trump insurrection start, we join the #CapitolStrong community in recognizing that this can bring up strong feelings among the Members, staff, employees, journalists, and others who work on Capitol Hill or are close to those who do. Some mental health resources are available on the coalition website. This week. The House is […]

Tags: Appropriations, Staff Pay, US Capitol Police, January 6, SCOTUS

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First Branch Forecast for May 15, 2023: Unions, CRS, USCP, and the Debt Debacle

First Branch Forecast for May 1, 2023: Analyzing CRS

First Branch Forecast for April 3, 2023: No Foolin’

First Branch Forecast for March 6, 2023: Members Request Staff Funding

First Branch Forecast for February 27, 2023: Videodome

First Branch Forecast for December 12, 2022: Twelve Squared

First Branch Forecast for Oct. 31, 2022: Improving Congressional Tech

First Branch Forecast for September 6, 2022: Democracy

First Branch Forecast for July 18, 2022: Accumulation of Facts

First Branch Forecast for June 21, 2022

First Branch Forecast for June 13, 2022: Everything at once

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